Общий Взгляд на Ситуацию в ЮАР

Положение в южноафриканской республике сложное и ухудшается.

Во-первых Южная Африка является транзитным пунктом для героина, производимого в Афганистане. Героин идет на юг от Афганистана до побережья Индийского океана, а затем по морю перемещается в Африку. Из-за усиления патрулирования дальше по побережью героин теперь уходит дальше на юг, а затем выходит на берег в Африке. Часто героин в настоящее время поступает на берег в Мозамбике. Оттуда он идет по суше, часто в Зимбабве, а затем в Южную Африку.

В Южной Африке его часто упаковывают в контейнерные грузы и загружают на коммерческие суда. Благодаря отличным торговым связям Южной Африки с остальным миром, афганский героин может быть отправлен оттуда в Европу, Северную Америку или Восточную Азию и Тихоокеанский регион. А поскольку Южная Африка не является страной-производителем героина, грузы оттуда часто не проверяют на наркотики.

Превосходная транспортная инфраструктура Южной Африки и относительно неохраняемые границы способствуют контрабанде. Кроме того, отличная финансовая инфраструктура Южной Африки и коррумпированное правительство облегчают отмывание денег.

Увеличенное присутствие героина в Южной Африке из-за контрабанды означает, что он там более доступен по более низкой цене. Следовательно, использование смеси наркотиков на основе героина стало широко распространенным, особенно с учетом высокого уровня безработицы, который достигает до 50 процентов молодежи.

Южная Африка уже была столицей убийств и изнасилований. Но теперь местные банды пытаются контролировать продажу героина, а международные организации, занимающиеся незаконным оборотом наркотиков, борются за контроль над движением наркотиков. Это сделало многие юрисдикции в Южной Африке более опасными, чем зоны военных действий.

Как будто этого было недостаточно, Южная Африка также является ключевым местом для контрабанды оружия и экзотических животных. Помимо всего этого, Южная Африка в настоящее время играет растущую роль в торговле людьми и кокаине.

Во-вторых столкнувшись со всеми преступлениями, южноафриканская полицейская служба находится в обороне. У полиции Южной Африки уровень насильственной смертности в несколько раз выше, чем у их американских коллег. Более того, уровень их самоубийств в 70 раз выше, чем в среднем по Южной Африке.

Полиции Южной Африки пришлось использовать частную охрану для защиты полицейских участков. Это было объяснено как освобождение сотрудников полиции для патрулирования, но это удивляет. В некоторых изолированных полицейских участках нет персонала во время темноты – не из-за проблем с бюджетом или рабочей силой, но потому что полиция не может защитить себя там. Если даже полиция в основном играет в защиту, что люди делают?

Во-третьих правительство во главе с Африканским Национальным Конгрессом некомпетентно и коррумпировано. АНК обратился к коммунизму в конце 1950-х годов и обратился к преступной деятельности, находясь в изгнании в 1980-х годах. Находясь у власти со времени окончания апартеида, АНК продвигает социалистические программы, которые разрушают то, что когда-то было экономикой Первого мира. АНК также разграбляет страну из-за масштабной коррупции, которая называется «захват государства».

Чтобы отвлечь внимание от этого, АНК продолжает обвинять Апартеид, хотя у АНК было 25 лет возможности исправить проблемы той эпохи – проблемы, которые стали хуже. АНК обвиняет белых южноафриканцев и ввел ряд законов, дискриминирующих их. В то время как все южноафриканцы должны работать вместе, чтобы строить экономику, коррумпированный АНК предпочитает воровать у южноафриканского народа и демонизировать белых.

Большинство южноафриканцев хотят мирно ладить друг с другом и строить «Радужную нацию». Но из-за всех преступлений и к тому же расистской пропаганды – пропаганды от АНК и от еще более воинственных и радикальных «Борцов за экономическую свободу» (EFF) – добрые люди Южной Африки потеряли контроль над своими общинами.

В-четвёртых в этом контексте мы рассматриваем геноцидное и ксенофобское насилие, особенно «нападения на фермы».

Южная Африка периодически страдает от ксенофобского насилия. Даже сейчас водители грузовиков вдоль основных автомагистралей подвергаются нападениям со стороны преступников, которые пытаются убить иностранцев, которые, как считается, устраиваются на работу у южноафриканцев. Главная магистраль N3, которая связывает важный порт Дурбан с основным городским районом вокруг Йоханнесбурга, теперь ночью практически непроходима. Другие крупные автомагистрали, такие как N1, связывающая Кейптаун с Йоханнесбургом, и N3, которая проходит вдоль побережья и соединяет порты, также находятся под угрозой.

Хуже этого, как в чрезмерном насилии, так и в последствиях для экономики, являются нападения на фермы. Достаточно сказать, что белые южноафриканские фермеры имеют самую опасную работу в мире, гораздо более опасную, чем работа южноафриканского полицейского или даже солдата, сражающегося в Сирии.

В течение десятилетий хорошо спланированные террористические акты на фермах в Южной Африке привели к тому, что как пожилые, так и очень молодые люди подвергались изнасилованиям и пыткам в течение нескольких часов – даже после того, как они перестали сопротивляться и передали свои ценности нападающим. И часто то, что они имели, стоило менее 50 долларов США. Часто злоумышленники хорошо вооружены, хорошо оснащены (даже имеют станции помех против сотовых телефонов), хорошо обучены и не боятся, что полиция может вмешаться.

Планирования в течение дней, уголовных пыток в течение часов – всё это за 50 долларов? Тот факт, что злоумышленники так мало боятся полиции вместе с их обучением и оборудованием, наводит на мысль о спонсируемых правительством военизированных формированиях или связях с организованной преступностью. Но организованная преступность хотела бы получить прибыль – и 50 долларов не станут покрывать расходы на атаки.

После национальных выборов в мае беззаконие в Южной Африке резко возросло. Теперь, в дополнение к запланированным атакам на фермах, есть много менее сложных атак. Риторика основных политических деятелей и даже посла Южной Африки в Дании и дочери Нельсона Манделы, именующих белых «поселенцами» и «ворами земли», делегитимизирует белых как граждан Южной Африки и выполняет одно из условий ООН для геноцида.

Насилие на расовой и ксенофобной основе угрожает приостановить большую экономическую активность, даже если это приведет к росту цен на продовольствие (из-за затрат, которые фермеры платят за свою защиту) и снижению продовольственной безопасности – в направлении голода.

    Итак, для общей картины:

Южная Африка имеет вторую по величине и наиболее развитую экономику в Африке. Это важный источник большого количества минералов, необходимых для современной промышленности. И он расположен на критических морских путях как ключевой перевалочный пункт, соединяющий Африку с миром и отдаленные части мира друг с другом.

Южная Африка также имеет наибольшее население в южноафриканском регионе. Южная Африка окружает Лесото; Мозамбик и Южная Африка вместе окружают Эсватини (ранее Свазиленд). Обе эти страны сильно зависят от того, что происходит в Южной Африке. Мозамбик сталкивается с политической нестабильностью и исламским мятежом, а также с торговлей наркотиками. Дальше по побережье Танзания, Кения и Сомали есть проблемы с незаконным оборотом наркотиков, исламскими повстанцами и другими проблемами. Вдали от побережья экономика Зимбабве находится в руинах, главным образом потому, что она проводила ту же политику, которую сейчас пытается осуществить АНК Южной Африки. Только Ботсвана (не имеющая выхода к морю и союзник США) и Намибия (на атлантическом побережье) дают надежду в регионе со степенью верховенства закона и стабильным экономическим развитием.

Когда Южная Африка превратится в голод, геноцид и ксенофобское насилие – не если, но когда – Зимбабве и страны вдоль побережья Индийского океана будут падать, как домино. Ботсване и Намибии понадобятся стабилизирующие силы под руководством США, чтобы хаос не затопил эти две страны.

Когда Южная Африка переходит из гангстерского государства в неудавшееся государство торговцев наркотиками, это будет дестабилизировать треть Африки, и последствия будут ощущаться во всем мире.

Communist Disinformation: Feel The Bern

It has always been important to be informed about what is going on, but it is especially so today, with so much happening so fast.

And it has always been important to be a discerning user of information, but it is especially so today, with so much information not just available, but very convenient to users.

To be an intelligent, discerning user of information, you have to recognize and understand the differences among information, misinformation, and disinformation.

Information is facts provided about a topic, and is usually conveyed by placing certain things, such as words, in a certain arrangement. Computer coding and DNA are also examples, but for our purposes we are more interested with things that people communicate to each other, especially about society, government and economic activity.

Misinformation refers to inaccurate information communicated by accident. It happens; people make mistakes, and others pass on that mistaken data in good faith, thinking it is correct.

But disinformation is something altogether different, and quite sinister.

Disinformation refers to inaccurate information that is knowingly and deliberately spread; disinformation consists of lies, usually widely told as part of a coordinated campaign to deceive, confuse and mislead: disinformation is warfare in the information realm.

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The communists came to power in Russia by means of disinformation. An early example was the use of the term “Bolsheviks” at the beginning of their rise to power. The word “Bolshevik” refers to a member of the majority; it is in contrast to “Menshevik” which refers to a member of the minority. However, at early pre-Revolutionary political meetings, neither the Bolsheviks nor the Mensheviks truly had a majority, since delegates often switched sides. In fact, often, the Bolsheviks were very clearly in the minority in political maneuverings.

Intrinsic in a disinformation campaign is the use of propaganda techniques. Propaganda is information that may be accurate, but not necessarily objective, complete or in context.

For example, by referring to themselves as the Bolsheviks, what eventually became the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) was employing a propaganda technique known as the “bandwagon” effect: calling themselves members of the majority communicates the idea that their victory is inevitable, everybody is on their side… so you should join them.

Wikipedia has a very good article outlining and defining propaganda techniques; considering all the propaganda being strewn around, you should take a few minutes and review it, and then refer back to it periodically.

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Once the Bolsheviks had seized power, basically through a coup d’état overthrowing the Kerensky government (it was not a “revolution”), they had to consolidate that power; keep in mind, they were a minority politically, and a very small minority indeed when competing on the national stage for power over a very vast empire.

Even as they were consolidating power through a civil war, the communists had their eyes on the prize: the Red Army was also known as the Army of World Revolution. The communists established, on the territory of the Russian Empire, the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. They of course proclaimed the independence of the other nations that the Russian Empire controlled; they didn’t want these people fighting against them, since the Bolsheviks were already a minority, and outnumbered.

But when it became convenient, that changed.

In 1918, the Bolsheviks seized power not just in Russia proper, but in the Ukraine and Byelorussia, too – as well as in the region known as Transcaucasia, to the south. This was formalized by treaty in 1922 (but don’t think that these nations were independent, or that anyone really had a choice) establishing the Soviet Union.

More correctly, the Soviet Union was known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In addition to the Russian Soviet Federated Soviet Republic, there was the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, and so on. When the Soviets attacked the Baltic States, there were three new additions: the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic, the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, and the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic. Ultimately, reversing what Lenin had originally promised the various ethnic groups (independence), all were consolidated and brought under Moscow’s rule, and there were fifteen Soviet Socialist Republics in the USSR.

But, what’s in a name?

The intention and belief of the leaders of the USSR – the world’s first socialist nation, the vanguard, the leader of the revolution of the workers and peasants – was that all industrialized nations would join the USSR (followed by other nations, as well; they were actually quite surprised that they seized power in a country so backwards as Russia was at the time – the communists thought Germany or Britain would fall first). There was supposed to be a German Soviet Socialist Republic, a French Soviet Socialist Republic, and so on.

Nation-states were a thing of the past. The New Soviet Man was going to be selfless, educated, hard-working, zealous in the spread of socialism… and he was to have lost any nationalist sentiments: he would not be Russian, or Ukrainian, or German, or English, but Soviet, having transcended archaic concepts such as nationality, and, self-mastered, fully dedicated to building communism worldwide. (Does this sound familiar?)

The Soviet Republics were ruled by their republic communist parties which, in turn, took orders from the CPSU in Moscow – which also gave orders to the “national” government that was recognized internationally, that of the Soviet Union itself.

By parallel, if you can imagine California being a one-party state, its government taking orders from the California Democratic Party which, in turn, took its orders from the DNC, which would be located in Washington, DC, and which would be giving orders to federal “elected” officials, you would have a pretty good idea what was going on.

That is, except for the element of imperialism – remember, the Soviet Union was like a snake that had bitten into the entire world, but now found itself too small to swallow its prey, and too weak to pull its teeth back out. Because, ultimately, there was supposed to be an Australian Soviet Socialist Republic, a Mexican Soviet Socialist Republic…

With the success of the communist revolution in Russia, but nowhere else, a new international communist organization was established: the Third Communist International, from 1919, also known as the Third International or Comintern, advocated democratic centralism – discussing things freely, but acting in unison; in reality, though, they took their orders from Moscow.

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The Soviet Union collapsed, of course, as we knew it would. Socialism doesn’t work. It is just a variation on an age-old theme: centralized power.

Communists would have you believe that society moves from feudalism to capitalism to socialism to communism, but this is ridiculous.

What in fact happened is that ideas about government evolved, mainly in Europe; and, most emphatically, mainly in the English-speaking world. Western ideas of governance of course go back to the ancient civilizations in the Mediterranean area, and we owe a great deal to those people. But after the collapse of the ancient civilizations in Europe (other parts of the world have a different history), Western Europe devolved into monarchies. And, in a world were absolute monarchs had total power over their people, it was in the British Isles that there was a long history of the people gaining power at the expense of the monarch. In 1215, the Magna Carta promised things like protection of church rights, protection of barons from illegal imprisonment, and prompt justice. Centuries later, the English Civil War broke out in 1642, and in early 1649, the English King, Charles I, was executed; England became a republic, although briefly. A few years later, the monarchy was restored, and this was followed by the Glorious Revolution, which saw the passing in 1689 of the English Bill of Rights: the king could no longer suspend laws, the imposition of taxes and keeping of a standing army in peacetime needed parliamentary approval, excessive bail and cruel and unusual punishments were prohibited, and other similar core principles were established: people of the British Isles were becoming citizens, not subjects, and they were governed, not ruled.

This is why, when European colonies were established around the world in this time, it was in the English-speaking colonies that there was growing discontent with being ruled by a distant king. In the British Isles, English-speaking people had rights – won in hard-fought battles over the course of centuries, and with roots in ancient civilizations – that people across the English Channel did not have; remember, despite moves in the direction of reform in France, Louis XVI was still an absolute monarch.

So, when English-speaking people in North America had taxes laid upon them and standing armies kept among them without the consent of their local legislatures, when colonists accused of serious crimes were taken back to the British Isles for trial in a place where they for all practical purposes could not have witnesses for their defense, when British military authorities came to take their weapons from them… they were being ruled, not governed – treated as subjects, not as citizens. In contrast, in the French- and Spanish-speaking colonies, such things were not unusual, and there was no history of these people knowing a better way of governance.

The American Revolution was nothing like the French Revolution. To be fair, many ideas circulated among political thinkers that were common. But, the American Revolution happened first, and resulted in a stable form of government. In contrast, the French Revolution quickly resorted to a total uprooting of all accepted norms of behavior, going so far as to rename the months of the year; people were guillotined, and the result was a military dictatorship that threatened all of Europe.

In a world that was very stratified, and where status was everything, the American revolutionaries put forth the idea that we are all equal in the eyes of our Creator: not equally wealthy, or equally talented, but equally human, and thus equally deserving of respect and dignity. They put forth the idea that a man struggling with poverty and simply trying to survive was the equal of the kings of France, Spain, and England. This was indeed revolutionary, and threatened not just independence of the British colonies, but an overthrow of all the established orders of the day, as far away as Russia and China, and to the depths of Central Asia and Africa and South America.

The government which came out of the American Revolution, which was philosophically based in ideas put forth in our Declaration of Independence and then codified in our Constitution, remains the newest and best – and most revolutionary – in all the history of human society. The promise made by those words has led in the United States to full enfranchisement of adults, regardless of gender, race, religion or wealth. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., was successful exactly because he recognized that a promise had been made, but not kept, and that it was long past time to keep that promise and ensure that Americans of African descent could exercise their equal rights without harassment or fear.

But these ideas sparked changes around the world.

And it is these ideas that make America special.

To be Polish or Vietnamese, you have to look like the people around you, speak the language of the people around you, and have roots in the country. Yes, you can become a citizen of Poland or of Vietnam; but being ethnically Polish or Vietnamese is different.

America, on the other hand, is an idea that we share and an ideal that we strive for. America is about people organizing their own lives, their own economic activity, their own government; it is about people having power, and delegating some of that power to those who govern them. It is a place where people, both as individuals and in whatever groups they choose to form, are supreme, and may do as they wish, whether economically, politically, religiously, or otherwise – provided that in so doing they do not take away the reasonable rights of others.

And to be an American, all you have to do is believe in the ideal set forth in our Declaration of Independence and agree to abide by and defend the codification of that ideal as put forth in our Constitution. If you do this, you are accepted as an American, and you can elevate yourself economically, socially, religiously and politically.

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Through the decades of its existence, the Soviet Union sought to spread its world revolution. At first, it tried this militarily, but found it was on the defensive. Big power politics and racism found their home in National Socialism, a not dissimilar ideology (remember, communism is “international socialism” – the difference is a prefix); at first, the communists and Nazis got along splendidly despite a deeply-rooted hatred for each other, but of course that was too good to last; Hitler betrayed Stalin before Stalin could betray Hitler, and the world’s first socialist nation found itself fighting for its very survival (relying on obsolete nationalism and even religion to motivate its New Soviet Man).

As the Soviet Union evolved, it found that asymmetric warfare (we didn’t call it that) and hybrid warfare (we didn’t call it that) were very useful: by subverting its enemies and fighting brush wars, the Soviet Union could spread its power and influence under the banner of international socialism, without provoking a war that Soviet leaders knew would be terrible and costly, and were not sure they could win.

Before it collapsed, the Soviet Union had a great deal of momentum with its subversive activities. Soviet agents had infiltrated and indoctrinated generations – generations! – of “intellectuals” and “scholars” around the world. They had muddied the waters of science and history, they had sewn doubt in the minds of the populations of target countries, and they had whole armies of useful idiots who misunderstood what the West in general, and America in particular, was about: people compared the worst reality of free enterprise and democratic republicanism with the promises of socialism, and liked the promises better.

To be sure, history has shown that these useful idiots are among the first to be executed when communists seize power. But, nevertheless, ungrounded in reality and believing the enticing lies of the serpent, they dance behind the piper who promises them free stuff.

The momentum of Soviet subversion and disinformation did not disappear when the Soviet Union collapsed. Rather, like a big, heavily-laden train that jumps its tracks, it threatens all in front of it as it crashes to a halt in a giant, chaotic wreck.

It is in this context that we need to discuss the socialist pipe dreams of current political campaigns.

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There’s this, from a great American President:

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves – in their separate, and individual capacities. In all that the people can individually do as well for themselves, government ought not to interfere.

– Abraham Lincoln

And there’s this:

Throughout history, governments have done certain things. These have included: establishing infrastructure, such as roads, for common use and to promote economic activity; means such as courts to resolve disputes; internal security, such as police, to protect against the criminal element; and military forces, to protect against external invaders.

Our Constitution requires a national census, for a variety of purposes, but including for the purpose of ensuring proportional representation and thus to facilitate our Constitutional government. It also provides for the common defense, thereby allowing for the raising of armies and navies; implicit in the raising of armies and navies is provision of health care for those who serve and who have served and received injuries that are service-related. And so on – please read the Constitution some time.

To lump all of these things in together and call them socialist programs is disinformation. Its intent is to confuse and obfuscate; many different propaganda techniques are evident in the image above. I leave it for you as an exercise to go the Wikipedia page and review what the propaganda techniques are, and to see how many you can spot here.

Food stamps, welfare, public housing, farm and business subsidies, federal student loans – and other things mixed in – are socialism.

And keep in mind – socialism is indeed a place on the road to communism, but communism is not the ultimate evolution of human social interaction; rather, it is a major step backward, beyond feudalism. Communism (socialism, progressivism – however they market it in order to sell it to you) is slavery: it means having an elite decide how you will be fed and housed, how you will be educated and clothed, where you will work, what you will do there and how much you will get paid. This is slavery – we fought a war to end it, we have seen it fail everywhere it has ever been practiced, and now they repackage it for you and want you to vote for it.

Another place you get food, health care, housing, work, education, and security is prison. Are you going to vote to place yourself in protective custody?

You can be an American, and believe in the principles upon which this nation was founded.

Or, you can vote for socialism, a form of government so terrible it had to be imposed by force and kept in place by terror, which has single-handedly led to the deaths of millions of people through war, starvation and brutality, an economic system that has failed everywhere it has ever been tried.

The Left will always contrast the best of their promises to the worst of reality in the American system – and what they promise appears to be better if you do not look closely. Then, they will point to the failures of socialism everywhere it has been tried, and say “they didn’t do it right” – implicit in this assumption is the arrogance of those who seek power as an elite: they will get it right.

Taking by force of government what people have worked for and earned, and giving it to those who have not worked for it, did not earn it, and do not deserve it, is socialism, and it is wrong; and there is no right way to do the wrong thing.

That is why it fails everywhere it has ever been tried.

Our system is not perfect; far from it. Ours is a government of the people, by the people and for the people; people are human and imperfect, so the government they establish is similarly imperfect.

But our system is still the best humanity has ever established, and if we Americans trade in our freedom and prosperity for the promises and pipe dreams of some old communist retread, then the light of freedom and prosperity will go out not just here in America, but all over the world, and the only place we will have to look for freedom and prosperity will be in heaven above – and that’s another thing the socialists seek to separate us from!

Summary for Congressional Staff – South Africa

Today I sent this to the staff of one of my elected officials. I have edited out the preliminaries and some sensitive information, but nothing substantial.

__________

To the point: I am VERY concerned about the situation in South Africa and its implications for US national security.

Key issues:

1) South Africa is becoming a growing hub for heroin trafficking. The narcotics are produced in Afghanistan and, due to interdiction efforts elsewhere, more of the product is being moved via the Southern Route, which is actually many different variations on the theme of taking heroin south from Afghanistan to the coast and then sending it across the Indian Ocean. While it goes to different destinations, including the Far East, most of it goes via Africa to Europe. As this is evolving, more and more of it goes farther and farther across the ocean before coming ashore in Africa; South Africa is becoming a key player.

a) South Africa has very good physical infrastructure, which facilitates physical movement.

b) It also has good port facilities and commercial ties with the rest of the world; heroin and other contraband are sent via containerized cargo to distant places, such as the European ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg and so on, and because of South Africa’s extensive commercial ties and the fact that it is not known as a drug-producing country, customs inspections of that containerized cargo are less rigorous than for cargo coming from other places.

c) South Africa has the second-largest and most developed economy in Africa, including excellent financial infrastructure; consequently, it becomes a hub for laundering drug money.

d) The extensive corruption of the ruling ANC, which took a hard left turn politically in the middle of the last century and became heavily affiliated with organized criminal activities in exile during the Apartheid-era insurgency, facilitates all manner of illegal activities. It is so bad that South Africa has become an example of “state capture” – a term that refers to a situation where a government is used for private gain, including for illegal activities.

e) Leakage from transshipped drugs helps fuel the local drug economy; gangs fight to control local distribution, and international drug-trafficking organizations fight to control transshipment hubs. All of this fuels violence and crime, whether it is an addict looking to score a fix, or a war between rival gangs. This is addressed more below.

f) The heroin negatively impacts our allies. In Europe, for example, every Euro spent dealing with drugs is a Euro not spent on defense, giving the current regime in Russia a freer hand in the Black Sea area and in subverting Western democratic institutions, and keeping the West from presenting an effective and unified front against Chinese takeover in the South China Sea via bases in the Spratly Islands. Furthermore, the profits of Afghan heroin help fund jihad against our troops and our allies worldwide.

2) South Africa has a very real, very significant, and rapidly growing problem with crime. It is a murder capital; some jurisdictions are significantly more dangerous than Syria at the moment.

a) Law enforcement is on the defensive. They comprise a significant spike in violent deaths, and a relatively unknown but not unanticipated fact is that their suicide rate is also quite high due to the stress. South African police who try to do their jobs honestly and effectively are demoralized. They are in survival mode; any further stress in South African society could easily have a catastrophic impact on the cops there – they will certainly not be able to promptly turn the tide should the situation devolve.

b) An even higher spike, both in the rate of violent crime and of the violence of the crime, is the victimization of commercial farmers of European descent. During the Apartheid-era insurgency, white farmers were specifically targeted by the ANC’s military wing, the MK. This was a war crime. In the post-Apartheid era, President Mandela did try to address the Farm Attacks. However, post-Mandela, the situation has gotten far worse; reversing a policy that President Mandela had pushed, the government has removed the “Commando System” of rural militia, which performed auxiliary police functions and gave farmers an intrinsic defense capability. Furthermore, the government has deprioritized the Farm Attacks, going so far as to aggregate the Farm Attack statistics in with the rest of the high crime rate for many years, so the plight of commercial farmers would not be noticed. My own analysis of the situation seems to confirm what others suspect: the Farm Attacks appear to have de facto sanction by the South African government, and appear to be perpetrated by a government-sponsored militia, possibly tied to organized criminal activity, but definitely in the spirit of Apartheid-era MK attacks on rural farmers. In a country where “necklacing” was invented, the Farm Attacks stand out for their brutality and gratuitous violence. Officially, the phenomenon is downplayed or altogether denied; however, reports I receive via private means, including from [edited], confirm scholarly research on the phenomenon: it is serious, organized, brutal and well-connected to people in power. The murder rate of white commercial farmers and the violence associated with their deaths is a spike significantly higher even than that of South African police. To be sure, on average, whites are less threatened by crime; but white commercial farmers have what is probably the most dangerous job in the world.

c) Not in the news is the high rate of crime, much of it fueled by drugs, in the township areas inhabited predominantly by blacks. The white commercial farmers at least have some kind of mutual support network and an organized means of trying to combat the Farm Attacks; NOBODY is going to bat for the blacks in these townships, as their communities are plagued by violent crime and sexual assault, and flooded with drugs.

3) Amplifying this mix:

a) ANC mismanagement and corruption has really hurt the economy, taking the country backwards during the quarter century of their rule. One example is the public power utility, ESKOM, which implements “load-shedding” – rolling cuts of electric power. Another example is the destruction of infrastructure – criminal gangs literally rip up the tracks of commuter trains and sell it as scrap, and have gone so far as to assault commuter trains, killing the employees and the guards there to protect the employees and commuters.

b) The identity politics of the ruling ANC, as well as the more extreme identity politics of third-place EFF and the fringe group BLF, fuel ethnic unrest; this creates the atmosphere where Farm Attacks receive tacit approval, even as they are denied and downplayed, and has helped set the stage for the repeated outbreaks of xenophobic violence, the most recent of which we are seeing right now. Quite frankly, my information shows that various factions are arming for civil war.

c) Problems in neighboring countries further impact this. Zimbabwe went down the path of “expropriation without compensation” and took farms from people of European descent; this heavily damaged their agricultural infrastructure, but neighboring South Africa was there to pick up the slack. However, if South Africa goes down this path, it will devastate the entire region with the fallout. Nations in the region are now struggling due to the drop in the price of diamonds. Mozambique has issues with an indigenous Islamic insurgency, as well as with other unrest, and is now dealing with the impact of a recent cyclone. And so on. Southern and Eastern Africa cannot prop up a collapsed South Africa; rather, a collapse in South Africa will most likely have a domino effect.

Boiling this down, the situation in South Africa is much worse than we may believe, even by going out of our way to get news and information about the region. It would not take much to cause significant unrest which, in turn, could quickly spike into ethnic cleansing (as it is, the situation with the Boer farmers is a slow-motion ethnic cleansing with the Farm Attacks) and genocidal violence. This, in turn, could cause a more general collapse, famine, and a refugee crisis which could destabilize neighboring countries all the way up Africa’s Indian Ocean coast; and, it would take a US-led intervention to stabilize our key ally in the region, Botswana, which is much smaller than South Africa and has its capital right across the border. Implicit in this would be a similar stabilization force for Namibia, both to keep the problem from spreading, and to ensure logistic support to US troops in the field in Botswana as well as ensure that Botswana could maintain a degree of trade with the world community via Namibian port facilities (Walvis Bay).

In this light, reports that Zimbabwe is acquiring the Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system from China – essentially a “poor-man’s Patriot” – and of the presence of militant Islamic extremists infiltrating South Africa’s well-established and growing, but peaceful, Islamic community are just icing on a very bad cake.

In my opinion, this is moving in the direction of a Venezuela-style crisis, with the potential for a Rwandan-style genocide, and ultimately a failed narco-state kind of similar to Somalia’s experience – all along critical sea lines of communication and atop key mineral resources needed for world industry.

We still have time to prevent the worst of this. The ruling ANC has shown its sensitivity to criticism in the international arena. While we do not want to tell them how to run their country, 1) heroin trafficking is a legitimate international issue, 2) genocidal and xenophobic violence and ethnic cleansing will not be tolerated, and 3) considering that the American taxpayer is subsidizing South Africa with $510 million in foreign aid for FY 2019 – about $9 per person there, and (depending on the exchange rate and data sources) is easily one fourth of all the money that disappears there due to corruption – the US certainly has a horse in this race.

Please look into this – publicly.

South Africa – Not In The News

So, anyone following the news has a great deal to take in.

And, this includes mainstream media news about South Africa.

But, there is a great deal that is not being addressed.

Of course, there are the farm attacks. But, we know that’s not going to make it into the news. The government denies the problem, and there is a great deal of evidence to suggest that certain elements of the government are complicit and facilitating the farm attacks.

But that’s not what we’re talking about.

Check the news, and you can see information about the State Capture Inquiry, and you can find information about the cyclone that hit southeast Africa.

But, what else is not in the news, and how does it all tie together?

Much of southern and eastern Africa is facing a shortage of rainfall, or even drought conditions (except where the cyclone recently hit).

The main thing to understand as you look at the images below: red and orange colors are bad – they mean a shortage of water:

Eastern Africa

Southern Africa

Why is this significant?

South Africa has Africa’s second largest and most developed economy. It also has a large population, of 53 million people, making it the fifth most populous country on the continent, and the most populous in southern Africa.

As it is, the other countries in southern and eastern Africa are having a variety of problems. The scarce rainfall I am calling attention to above, the recent cyclone that has been in the news, and other situations are causing problems.

But, the region is getting by – not without difficulty, not without violence, not without loss of life, but getting by.

What will happen if the more extreme elements in South Africa’s political scene get their way, and dispossess South Africans of European descent of their property? The economy (which is currently facing difficulties, for example, due to corrupt mismanagement of the electricity provider, Eskom) will tank, food security will be impacted, and this dispossession can only occur violently. Racist violence targeting whites will spark general xenophobic violence; the unrest could easily spread into a broader civil war, and will most certainly create a refugee crisis.

Refugees will leave South Africa, inundating nearby countries, which are smaller and have less economic activity: Namibia, concerned about drought; Mozambique, dealing with Islamic insurgents and the aftermath of a terrible cyclone; and so on.

Refugees moving in a northeastern direction, along the Indian Ocean coast, will cause the greatest instability, as they move into countries that already have problems with unrest, weather, and so on, and do not have the reasonably successful and stable situations seen in Namibia and Botswana.

This could cause a domino effect up the coast.

Even in the absence of such a severe situation, considering the impact of drought conditions on food security in southern and eastern Africa, what will happen when the ruling ANC takes farmland from white minority farmers and “redistributes” it to people who do not want farms and who do not know how to farm (they want jobs and places to live close to those jobs – in the townships and cities)?

South Africa needs to maximize food production in order to avert a crisis in other African nations. But if South Africa decimates its agricultural sector in the hope of diverting attention from corruption, loadshedding, and other problems and for electoral gain for the ruling party in the upcoming elections, the ruling ANC will simply be adding a large, new crisis on top of the other crises ongoing and developing in South Africa and elsewhere nearby.

How is this going to impact Europe and America?

Well, we will need to mount a humanitarian operation – probably a pretty big one – and an operation to stabilize key allies, such as Botswana. Botswana is trying hard to do things right; but it’s a smaller country right on South Africa’s border, and will inevitably be impacted as food prices zoom up, and with refugees fleeing the problems in South Africa. With just a little over 2 million people, Botswana could easily be overwhelmed with refugees.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to dispense over half a billion dollars in foreign aid to South Africa. That’s almost ten dollars per person there!

Every dollar of US taxpayer money spent in South Africa helps the ruling ANC avoid accountability for all the corruption and all the money corrupt government officials there steal. Currently, it is estimated that corruption in South Africa accounts for a loss of 27 billion rand per year. That’s about 1.9 billion US dollars, over three and a half times what we are spending in foreign aid for South Africa. If South Africa could cut its corruption in half, they could do better than they are now, even without any US taxpayer dollars to subsidize them. That would mean more US foreign aid money would be available to help victims of drought, storms, and so on. (Or we could spend that money here at home on our own infrastructure, but of course, that’s a ridiculous idea.)

The real issues in South Africa are not in the news here in the USA right now.

But, they will be.

Coming Apart at the Seams

Today I begin emailing this to government officials, media figures and members of civil society worldwide:

South Africa is on the verge of coming apart at the seams, and this is not just hype before their elections next year.

These deeply-rooted seams are related to different approaches to society; the roots are:

a) ethnic/cultural (but portrayed as racial),
b) political,
c) economic,
and
d) lawful/civil vs. criminal/corrupt.

The “Rainbow Nation” has a motto, “Unity in Diversity”, but the reality stemming from this diversity is far different.

A confluence of several factors is causing this:

1) incredible crime, now made much worse by significant heroin trafficking;
2) corruption so bad it is called “state capture”, where government institutions are harnessed to serve private and criminal ends;
3) “Farm Attacks”, which
a) began during the insurgency in the Apartheid era,
b) have driven three quarters of South Africa’s white farmers out of business during the post-Apartheid era,
c) constitute a de facto ethnic cleansing even as they impact food supply and food prices,
and
d) are the cutting edge of a growing ethnic (“racial”) divide;
as well as
4) failed socialist and communist policies, most recently including the drive to “expropriate without compensation” (= “take without paying”, legalized theft) farmland (and anything else).

I will address each of these items in turn, providing links for information; however, I encourage you to take a moment and find your own sources to verify that my comments on these topics accurately reflect the reality and gravity of the situation.

1) Crime and heroin

South Africa has always had a high crime rate. The murder rate is high: on average, the national murder rate compares favorably (just barely!) to many war zones (MUCH more favorably than Syria). However, some precincts are worse; for example, Philippi East, a township of Cape Town, has a murder rate estimated at 323.4 per 100,000, making it nearly six times more dangerous than Afghanistan, and significantly more dangerous than Syria:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-45547975

In addition to being a murder capital, South Africa is a rape capital; it is getting so bad that a deputy minister had to warn everyone to ensure tourists do not get sexually assaulted.

https://www.iol.co.za/pretoria-news/watch-ensure-tourists-are-not-raped-says-deputy-minister-18098013

The crime is now being fueled by heroin.

The world’s heroin production is centered in Afghanistan these days; most of it goes to Europe. Due to interdiction efforts elsewhere, an increasing amount is going via the “Southern Route”, through the Indian Ocean. South Africa is becoming a major transshipment point for many reasons: it has excellent infrastructure, good trade with the rest of the world, and solid financial networks, all of which enable movement of contraband and laundering of drug money.

https://issafrica.org/iss-today/heroin-hits-south-africa-along-the-highway-to-impunity

http://theconversation.com/heroin-trafficking-through-south-africa-why-here-and-why-now-81627

Being a transshipment point results in increased availability of heroin on the street within South Africa.

There (and elsewhere on the continent) heroin is mixed with other drugs, such as cannabis, and these concoctions are known in different jurisdictions by different names: whoonga, nyaope, sugars. Many people who are aware of a drug problem within their community do not realize that they are all dealing with Afghan heroin.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-07-27-the-work-of-whoonga-an-epidemic-on-the-move/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31620569

https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1179509/drug-abuse-is-growing-in-sa/

Addicts get money for drugs through street crime, and this drives the crime rate up higher than it normally is (which is high). Also, while under the influence, they commit crimes they might not otherwise commit, and the level of barbarity increases, as well.

https://crimsonpublishers.com/rpn/pdf/RPN.000554.pdf

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/living-in-krugersdorps-drug-hell-12964346

Finally, gangs fighting over the trafficking and distribution of heroin also fuel the violent crime rate. The presence of foreign criminal gangs then, in turn, helps fuel xenophobic attitudes which themselves have in the past resulted in outbreaks of violence against immigrants from other parts of Africa who arrive in search of jobs.

https://www.iol.co.za/news/cape-gangs-have-global-backing-1790368

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/29/south-africans-are-taking-the-law-into-their-own-hands-vigilantism-extralegal-justice-police-apartheid-anc-private-security/

In the face of all this, South African police can’t even protect themselves. For 2017, they lost 160 police killed in the line of duty (from a total South African population of 57 million people).

https://www.iol.co.za/sunday-tribune/news/160-cops-killed-per-year-police-expert-13474293

By comparison, the US lost 128 officers in the line of duty in 2017 (a drop from the previous year with 143 deaths), from a population of 325 million.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2017-12-28/dramatic-drop-in-police-officer-deaths-in-2017

For police, that’s over seven times as dangerous in South Africa as in the USA for 2017; if we compare South Africa 2017 with the US in 2016 (when we had not experienced a drop), the rate is still over six times as high.

2) Corruption and “state capture”

Corruption in South Africa is rampant.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-10-08-south-africa-a-republic-constituted-on-corruption/

South Africa is now dealing with “state capture”, where illicit and criminal activity actually take over the government apparatus and bend government services to serve criminal interests.

https://www.dw.com/en/inquiry-into-state-capture-scandal-begins-in-south-africa/a-45148092

Considering the growing influence of Afghan heroin moving along the “Southern Route” to Europe, and taking it in the context of corruption and “state capture”, South Africa could be on its way to becoming a “narcostate”.

This is happening in a country where the unemployment rate hovers a little above 25 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/unemployment-rate

That’s one quarter of the population getting by on about $1.25 USD a day.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/south-africa-poverty-levels-increasing-180914111642562.html

About five million people (nearly all blacks) are in squatters’ camps, though if you do an internet search, the information returned is usually about whites in the camps. The fact that there are 385 blacks in such “informal settlements” for each white in such a place helps fuel resentment on the part of many blacks that internet searches make it look like it’s all whites in the camps.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2018/06/14/what-the-numbers-say-about-sas-squatter-camps_a_23459035/

3) In this context, we should discuss the Farm Attack phenomenon.

During the days of Apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC, now the ruling party) was led by Nelson Mandela in the direction of communist ideology. They established a military wing, the MK, of which Mandela was chairman. This militant wing began a campaign of indiscriminate bombings, and went so far as to place landmines in rural areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe

These things were considered war crimes at the time.

http://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.html

The landmines had to end, because so many of the people being killed were black Africans, whom the ANC claimed to be trying to liberate. Mandela sought to steer the military actions in the direction of sabotage, because he felt this had the best chance of success and the best chance of reconciliation afterwards; it was for this sabotage that he was imprisoned.

During this insurgency, the ANC and MK declared commercial farms (owned by people of European descent, so-called “whites”) to be military targets, and commenced a campaign of attacks on them: “Farm Attacks”.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/the-origins-of-south-africas-farm-murder-epidemic

Deliberately targeting civilian farmers was also a war crime, but of course the insurgents were feted as “liberating” South Africa and, in any case, the winner decides who gets tried and for what.

After Apartheid ended and Mandela was elected President, the Farm Attacks continued; some genies just won’t go back into their bottle once they’ve been summoned. President Mandela recognized the serious impact on South Africa’s economy, including on food security, and prioritized these farm attacks.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/farm-murder-blindness

Note that Farm Attacks have been defined as a special category of crime, aside from workplace or domestic violence or other “social fabric” crimes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_farm_attacks

During Mandela’s tenure as President of South Africa, South Africa’s military included a militia component known as the “Commando System”. The Commando System had roots going way back in South Africa’s history, even before the Apartheid era, but it was maintained in the post-Apartheid military organization. Commandos kept military-grade weapons at their rural homes, enabling them to respond quickly to crises, and allowing an intrinsic self-defense capability in the farm areas. The Commandos also served as a police auxiliary, and even in the post-Apartheid era, conducted tens of thousands of missions assisting law enforcement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commando_System_(South_Africa)

Mandela saw the Commando System as a key feature of rural security to address the Farm Attacks, and encouraged people – especially white Boer farmers (see below) – to join.

Looking at the Commando System in the post-Mandela era, it was determined that it should be disbanded, but NOT UNTIL a follow-on could be deployed.

http://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/T%20&%20T/T%20&%20T-11-0-000-13-Web/T%20&%20T-11-1-000-13-ABST-PDF/S-T&T-11-1-025-13-301-Twala-C/S-T&T-11-1-025-13-301-Twala-C-Tt.pdf

Despite this recommendation, the system was dismantled beginning in 2003, over warnings of the main opposition political party, the Democratic Alliance, that doing so would be a disaster.

http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=40081

By 2008, it had been phased out, supposedly to be replaced by specialized police units, which never actually appeared. This left rural farmers particularly vulnerable to Farm Attacks.

Meanwhile, the South African government deprioritized Farm Attacks, going so far as to stop publishing statistics on them. This had the effect of leaving these crimes mixed in with the aggregated crime statistics, so people couldn’t see what was going on. We only know what has been happening because the private sector, including agriculture and civil rights activists, have continued to monitor the phenomenon.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/on-sas-brutal-farm-murders

The result was this: government policies left rural farming communities more endangered, at the same time that government policies also made the crimes against them harder to monitor.

Please let that last statement sink in. Taken together with the fact that it was the ANC that began the farm attacks, and that the ANC made these decisions, these facts establish a pattern of conduct on the part of some elements of South Africa’s ruling political party, the ANC: leave the Boer farmers vulnerable, allow them to be brutally and terroristically attacked, and cover the whole thing up.

Scholarly research into the Farm Attack phenomenon shows that its motivation seems to be one of intimidation. Research by Cristopher Gumbi (notice spelling of the first name) demonstrated this.

http://ulspace.ul.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10386/1981/gumbi_ma_2017.pdf

Based on my own research, there are some criminal assaults on rural farms that appear to be “normal” crime. However, the Farm Attacks are a distinct phenomenon; the attackers are 1) well-equipped, 2) well-trained, and 3) execute their attacks with a degree of precision characteristic of military units. Furthermore, there is 4) gratuitous violence – barbaric torture (I will spare you the details) – going far beyond anything that would be needed to coerce victims into cooperating, often lasting for hours (and even days!) after valuables have been taken, and sexual assault that goes beyond anything that could be considered opportunistic rape. Finally, 5) what is stolen is of small value, often less than $20 US, which in no way compensates for the money it takes to buy state-of-the-art cell phone and radio jammers used in the attacks, or to pay for a vehicle to wait at an exfiltration point, or which could satisfy the skilled mercenaries who would be needed to conduct these attacks.

In my opinion, it would take the resources of a transnational criminal cartel, or of a national government, to conduct such a coordinated campaign of terroristic intimidation.

The South African government knows this, and has been aware of it for decades. Yet, the problem has not been effectively dealt with; rather, it appears such crime is being enabled.

The rate of violent death of white commercial farmers in South Africa is about twice the rate of violent death for South African police.

It is noteworthy that the third most powerful political party in parliament, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), was established and is led by a man who used to lead the ANC’s Youth League (ANCYL), Julius Malema. Malema and his people received military-style training at South African military bases about eight years ago.

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Military-training-for-ANCYL-leaders-20100513

Malema wears a military-style uniform, calls himself the “commander in chief”, and is known for singing songs about shooting the Boer (who are the white farmers). Malema has pushed for “expropriation without compensation” and the ruling ANC is now in the process of amending the constitution to do just this; however, concerns exist that it is not just land that will be taken, but that the proposed amendment will allow anything – bank deposits, intellectual property – to be “expropriated” (see below).

The history of the Boer farmers is interesting (and this part is based on documents, not all of which are available online). When Europeans first arrived in the 1600’s, they encountered Khoi, who were nomads, and San, who were hunter-gatherers; these people are reminiscent of Australian aborigines. Boer is a Dutch and Afrikaans word meaning “farmer”; it refers to people who emigrated from Europe to these colonies in South Africa, and then to those who left the Cape Colony area when South Africa came under British control during the Napoleonic era, migrating to the northeast of what is now the Republic of South Africa.

This happened as the Zulu were moving down into the area from farther north. The Zulu were conducting a genocidal conquest of the region. Often, the Boer moved into areas that had been depopulated; many native people either fled from the advancing Zulu, or had been killed. Many of the remaining peoples found an ally with the Boer, who helped defend against further Zulu conquest. As a result, the Boer occupied 1) land that was vacant, either because it had never been inhabited, or because its inhabitants had been killed or had left fleeing the Zulu; 2) land that they procured from neighboring peoples, often exchanging cattle for it (and these people were frequently happy to have the Boer as a buffer between themselves and the Zulu); and 3) land taken from the Zulu through conquest during a defensive war.

One incident of note illustrates the situation: Zulu King Dingane asked the Voortrekker leader Piet Retief to retrieve some stolen cattle, and in return the Voortrekkers would receive land. The Voortrekkers complied, and then agreed to a treaty granting them farmland. They were then invited to a celebration, and were asked to leave their weapons behind; at the celebration, the Zulus treacherously slaughtered the unarmed Voortrekkers. The Zulus then went on the offensive, massacring more Boer in a camp nearby. In the subsequent Battle of the Blood River, 15,000 Zulu warriers attacked 470 Voortrekkers, but the Zulus suffered a crushing defeat.

Regardless of the history nearly two centuries ago, all people whose families have lived in what is now the Republic of South Africa for generations are Africans – some of European descent, some of Asian descent, but Africans nonetheless – and are citizens of South Africa; they have intrinsic human rights and deserve equal protection before the law.

That notwithstanding, people of European descent are too often referred to as “settlers” in a very clear effort to delegitimize them as Africans and as citizens of the “Rainbow Nation” and to set the stage for de facto ethnic cleansing of rural farm lands. To be sure, it is not a situation where murderous attacks on whites are particularly rampant; on average, crime impacts blacks, especially poor blacks, at a higher rate, and whites tend to be a little safer. But when you disaggregate the information and look at white commercial farmers in rural areas, there is an incredible spike, not just in murder and rape, but in the barbarity and violence of the crimes, as well. The obvious intent, both of public statements by political leaders which create the atmosphere and of the Farm Attacks themselves, is ethnic cleansing.

Genocide Watch has categorized South Africa at Stage 6 of 10 for genocide of white Boer farmers and of foreigners; elements of and spikes into the other four stages are present.

http://www.genocidewatch.com/south-africa

4) Expropriation without Compensation (EWC)

One move that the ANC-led government is trying, with tremendous support from the radical left-wing militant EFF, is to gain political leverage for the upcoming elections by pushing a scheme to take land from the “settlers” (white farmers). Though Article 25 of the South African Constitution allows for “expropriation” of property subject to fair compensation and in the public interest, South Africa is in the process of amending this article to permit taking of private property without compensation. Despite being billed as an effort to redistribute land, the reality is that no property will be safe: urban and intellectual property, accumulated wealth… all will be subject to “expropriation without compensation”.

It should be noted that the very next article in the South African Constitution, No. 26, provides that people may not be dispossessed of their homes without having their day in court. Also, Article 39 states that the courts must consider international law; much of what is going on in South Africa, and this includes the proposed EWC, would violate many provisions of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/

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South Africa is the world’s 25th largest country by area, 24th by population, and is Africa’s only member of the G20; the economy is Africa’s second largest and most developed; depending on which set of statistics you consider, its GDP ranks anywhere from 31st to 41st place in the world. The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) ties the South African economy to those of its neighbors, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (now known as eSwatini). South Africa has some of the richest mineral deposits in the world, feeding world industry, and has extensive coal deposits. There are also largely undeveloped reserves of unconventional and offshore petroleum (though not a lot), and the country sits astride critical shipping lanes around the southern tip of Africa.

A great deal is at stake, and if South Africa goes the way of a failed state, you need to imagine a Somalia-like scenario, but on steroids – including Islamic terrorism, which is destabilizing large parts of Mozambique (South Africa’s neighbor to the north along the Indian Ocean coast), and which is now present in the port city of Durban. In my opinion (and in the Air Force, I was an Intelligence Applications Officer and graduate of the USAF Weapons School), this could destabilize a third of Africa through genocidal and xenophobic civil war, famine and a resulting refugee crisis.

Such a scenario will beg for a US-led intervention to stabilize the country; that failing, China would likely have to intervene to protect mineral resources and critical infrastructure. China already appears to be getting assets in place, including the alleged deployment of late-model surface-to-air missiles (a “poor man’s Patriot”) to neighboring Zimbabwe, which faces no threat requiring such a defense, unless one considers the potential for a Western intervention.

This Time The Americans Were Here

Military history has always been an interest of mine.

Twice I visited the Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument, which was the place where Custer and the US Army Seventh Cavalry fought against the Lakota (Sioux) and their allies the Cheyenne. Custer and five companies of cavalry with him were wiped out; though some of the Seventh survived, there were extensive losses on both sides.

The first time I was there, I was traveling from Las Vegas, Nevada, to northern Illinois. I had just graduated what was then known as the US Air Force Fighter Weapons School. It was a day in early May, 1991. It was a beautiful spring day; it was warm and comfortable, sunny, with fluffy white cumulus clouds floating by, so close to the ground I felt I could reach up and touch them.

The Little Bighorn Battlefield was an eerie place. There were few other people there, and a road allowed visitors to drive along the low hill line that served as a defensive position for the Seventh Cavalry troopers. The first stop along that road from the highway was a small, fenced-in place where Custer himself had been found, dead, surrounded by dead cavalrymen.

I could feel their presence, 115 years after the battle.

For me, every man there was a hero, even if all he did was look up at the sky and cry during the battle.

I went back there again several years ago. The place had changed; they had improved the facilities. Along the way, I talked with some of the Lakota people who live in the area.

For me, they were all Americans; it is sad that we all had to fight each other, but I honor the Lakota and Cheyenne every bit as much as the US soldiers.

Since that time, I have begun to try to learn some Lakota. We need to preserve these Native American cultures and languages, because if they die out, it will be a loss for all humanity, and especially for us Americans.

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These past few years, it is similar for me traveling around the Deep South. I come across old graveyards where Confederate soldiers are buried. At times, I find the graves of men who served in the Revolutionary War.

I was raised in the North, and grew up thinking that the Confederacy, like the Indians, were an enemy. As I got older, I learned. The Confederate soldiers, too, were Americans. The war had to be fought to keep the Republic together, and to end slavery. But, it is sad: how much more could we have accomplished if there had been no rebellion, and if we could have agreed to end slavery peacefully, years sooner?

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In the fall of 1991, a few months after my first visit to Little Bighorn, I went to Germany to visit an old friend from high school.

While there, I of course had to take a trip to Bastogne.

You may remember that tiny town in Belgium. In late 1944, Hitler tried one last gamble to change his fortunes: he collected over twenty divisions of troops and on December 16th launched them against the American lines in the Ardennnes Forest. As all attacks do, this attack caused a bulge in the defending lines; noticing this, war correspondents dubbed it “the Battle of the Bulge”, and that is how it is known to history. The US Army fell back to Bastogne, and rushed in elements of the elite 101st Airborne Division; the Germans couldn’t take the town, and their offensive failed.

I rode a train into the Ardennes Forest that fall. It was a self-propelled passenger car – a one-car train. I got off in Bastogne, found a hotel, and got a room. I walked around a little that rainy autumn night, then bought a bottle of wine and some bread, and went back to my room for the evening.

The next day, I got up and walked around. Exploring, I noticed a place called the “Cafe Le Patton” – the Patton Cafe. Later, I discovered a small museum; it was closed, but there was a phone number to call to make an appointment to have it opened up. I called the number and in my broken-but-not-too-bad French made an appointment for a tour. The curator met me at 2:00 PM. It was strange, because the museum had been broken into, so there was a police officer there with us filling out a report as I got my tour. Occasionally, the curator would explain something in French, but I wouldn’t get it; the policeman would help translate, speaking English that was almost as bad as my French. They were really great people.

As it ended, I thanked the curator for taking the time to give me a personal tour, and he answered “For an American, it’s a pleasure.”

I was touched, but didn’t really understand the gravity of his statement.

That night, I had dinner in a Chinese restaurant… got a little drunk (what the heck, I was on vacation and walking)… went back to my room. You had to be inside the hotel by 10:00 PM, or you were locked out until the next morning.

The next day I got up, had the free continental breakfast in the dining room, carrying on a nice conversation in French with some people – I forget where they were from, but French was a foreign language for them, too – and then went out to explore again.

It was overcast, chilly, rainy…. There was another museum farther out, and I toured it. It was big, and had a lot of stuff dealing with the battle. (The other museum had been small, and had historical information going back to when humans first inhabited the region.)

Walking back late in the afternoon, I stopped in at the Cafe Le Patton.

Understand, this was a neighborhood place. The locals (men) went there in the evening to have a few drinks and catch up on the day’s events. (I didn’t notice what was going on there in the daytime; presumably lunch.) When I walked in, everybody looked at me.

They were quite friendly, and were pleased to find out I could speak passable French.

And then I explained I was an active duty officer in the US Air Force, on vacation. I showed them my green ID card.

At that point, I was ushered to a seat, and an older gentleman came and sat down with me. He spoke fairly good English; he had learned it from the downed US and British aviators that he had helped during the war.

We talked a LOT. There was a younger man named Guy who stood nearby: Guy had studied English in school, and spoke it reasonably well; whenever the man and I had trouble, Guy helped us out with a translation.

We talked and talked.

Finally, toward the end of the evening, as I was getting ready to leave (it was after 9 PM, and I didn’t want to be locked out), the man told me a story.

In a reference to the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, the outbreak of World War I in 1914, and the beginning of World War II in 1940, he said that three times before, the Germans had attacked through the Ardennes Forest, and each time, they occupied the region for years. The fourth time, though (in 1944, at the Battle of the Bulge), it was different: this time, the Americans were here, and the Germans were stopped cold.

There was, of course, more to the story than that: in 1870, 1914 and 1940, Germany was an ascendant power; in 1944, Germany was war-weary, scraping the bottom of the barrel for troops and resources, and low on fuel for their panzer divisions. On top of that, in the previous three attacks, the German forces were moving along the roads through the woods in a southwesterly direction toward Paris; this time, they were curving northwest, toward the coast, and the roads didn’t really run in that direction.

That didn’t really matter, though.

What mattered to these people was that the Americans were there, and the Germans got stopped.

It was late, and I had to leave. I asked the bartender how much I owed, as he was keeping a ticket behind the bar. He pulled my tab out, looked it up and down a couple of times, and then looked at me and said “Nothing!”

The free drinks (and they kept my glass full!) and good will were bought and paid for by American soldiers back in December, 1944: those men fought, and died, in the snow stopping the Nazi offensive, and here I was cashing in on free beer.

As I left, my friend from the Resistance asked me if I needed anything… food, wine… a girl, perhaps?

Oh my gosh, I thanked him very profusely, but said no, I’m okay, I just need to get back to my hotel room.

(A girl?! Oh my gosh!!)

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God blessed America with great men, wise men, who gained our independence and established a new form of government, an enduring government where people are sovereign, people’s rights are the rule, and government is limited, ruling by consent of the governed.

God blessed America again and again with great people to build and defend not just our country, but other countries as well!

But the forces of evil do not rest; tyrants forever seek to oppress and enslave their fellow humans.

I swore at Little Bighorn, and time and again in the remote cemeteries here in the South over the graves of American soldiers from past centuries, that if America is destroyed, it will be over my dead body. And I asked God to help, and to send me the courage and wisdom of these brave warriors as we fight a new kind of war, a war in cyberspace and in the hearts and minds of people all around the world.

As future histories are being written about tyranny and where it tries to spread, wherever those histories mention Americans, let it be said that the forces of oppression advanced this far, and no farther, because this time the Americans were here.

Tami Carlone Looks Into Voter Fraud

Tami Carlone ran for the Michigan State Board of Education in this election cycle. A Republican, her campaign was unsuccessful; this cycle put two Democrats on the board.

I have liked the Facebook pages of quite a few Republican organizations, and one of them shared her post. Here it is, in its entirety:

Folks – you asked me to look into voter fraud – I finally dug in after the hundreth request. Being a CPA and Process Improvement Expert makes it easy.

The results could not be more clear – our elections are full of fraud. Before I share some input, let me tell you where I am now and what is happening.

Mama isn’t happy- can you tell?

I am at the Wayne County Board of Canvassers meeting to share my concerns. It was to start at 3:30. It is now past 5:30 and they are nowhere near starting. Add that to my list. I asked the board to postpone and they said no; today last day to certify election results. I said public must be able to take part in these meetings and by posting the time and not holding to it – and refusing to reschedule – they are keeping that from happening.

Here is the presentation I wont be able to give:
Wayne Bd of Canvassers 11/20/18

3:30 start time
Past 5:30 – still not started – results report not printed – s/b done and reviewed in advance!

Tami SBE top vote getter until wayne hit almost end of next day
Voters want to know what takes Wayne a full day longer than the other 82 counties?

Many people looking for Wayne detailed results – by city/precinct in Wayne site – do u know when it will be posted. S/b well before this mtg.

I would like to request a full audit of Wayne results.
As a CPA and Process Improvement Expert – I have to say – I took a look at the numbers and the process and there is no way they are accurate.
I can provide details to you but a top level look at the numbers makes it clear the numbers don’t add up;
and discussion with people involved in elections at state, county and city levels makes it clear – many people have already identified a huge lack of controls in the process.

Wayne population ~1.7 million and ~1.3 million registered voters. Not possible – take out kids alone and statistically not possible.
665,278 ballots cast in Wayne ; statistically very highly unlikely (51% of registered voters but that number clearly way too high – w/ only a 20% reduction number becomes 64% voter turnout);
560,039 votes for an SBE seat – statistically very highly unlikely – esp w/o straight ticket voting.

I took part in the 2016 recount in Oakland County and saw fraud with my own eyes.
I had friends in the Wayne recount and they saw the same. Couldn’t even continue the recount. What has been done?
Take the list of precincts where there were empty and nearly empty locked ballot boxes and start your audit there.

You must take a look at the absentee ballot process – people there saw paid staffers filling in ballots in full – front to back – with how they wanted the votes – not how the ballots they were duplicating were intended.
Those people were told to re-do and were not sent home for their fraud.
The process should have registered Rep and Dem voters and a witness at each station.
No controls or controls not followed takes away our ability to certify or trust election results.
People there noticed ballots came in loose and free – with no control.
In the process from clerks office to COBO – and thru that process – what control process of physical ballots and how do we know ballots not made up since ballots laying loose all around?

One team of watchers at COBO asked for the list of absentee ballots asked for by voters per precinct to compare to count put thru machines and they told it exists but they don’t have it there. Why not?!
They asked computer guy if ballots could be put thru more than once and he said yes. Ballot machines were unlocked.

Clearly, in addition to controls needing to be put into place, poll workers need to be trained way better and accountability needs to be put in place, ETC. I would like to conduct a top down and bottom up analysis and submit a report of recommended changes AND I would like to manage the implementation. This is what a Process Improvement Expert does. Being a CPA – a numbers and controls expert – is a perfect fit. I can’t think of a better use of these skills outside of fixing education than election integrity. Ruth Johnson – are you in? We have a month in the drivers seat.

The accompanying photos with their captions:

Mama’s not happy. I hate cheating and I hate inefficiency – ESP when We The People are paying for it! #ElectionIntegrity

Wayne County Board of Canvassers room in Detroit, MI.

Board of Canvassers in each county is 2 appointed Republicans and two appointed Democrats. This is after 2 hours of waiting for the meeting to start. Room was full when I arrived and those people left by the time the Board started (I had to leave for Bible study – as did a Board member!) – so the people were never heard… I told them my message would be on FB for them to see and I await their response.

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Watch for further information regarding this matter. : )

Senator Scott – Please Look at South Africa!

A message I submitted to Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina through his website this afternoon:

I tried calling your Columbia office a couple of times; the machine tells me I have a chance to leave a message, then almost immediately disconnects.

I have tagged your Twitter-verified account with information dealing with South Africa.

It’s complicated, but the ruling ANC is strengthening its ties to China – not investments, but party-to–party, trying to learn one-party rule from the Chinese Communist Party. Nationally, the only other party getting traction is a militant communist group called the EFF. It was started by the former leader of the ANC Youth League, after they received military-style training at South African Defense Force bases. (For comparison, imagine if a ruling political party here in the US gave training to KKK members on US military bases.) It is a black-supremacist group, calling for the murder of people of European descent. South Africa has had outbreaks of violence frequently, in addition to being very crime ridden. There is violence based on ethnic groups and xenophobia.

The moves to take land without paying the owners will impact food production. Farm attacks, with excessive violence and torture against commercial farmers, have already caused the price of food to go up and driven farmers out of business; South Africa used to export, now imports food. This is in a land where more than 5 million people live in squatters’ camps, and one quarter of the population is unemployed, surviving on the equivalent of 1.25 USD a day. The move against private property will worsen things dramatically; more identity-politics and deficit-spending will spiral it downhill.

There are no regional powers that can turn it around. South Africa has the second-largest and most developed economy in Africa; it is a treasure-house of minerals needed for world industry, it produces coal, there is undeveloped reserves of petroleum (both offshore and unconventional), and the country sits astride important sea lanes.

When it collapses, there will be famine, and refugees will flood about a third of Africa – which is already stressed with crises.

On top of that, the Islamic State has been identified as present and responsible for bombings in Durban; Islamic extremists are destabilizing much of Mozambique to the north. Moreover, South Africa is now a major transshipment point for Afghan heroin along the Southern Route – indeed, the heroin drives a significant increase over an already very high crime rate.

China is ahead of the game, having sold late-model surface-to-air missiles to neighboring Zimbabwe. These missiles are a poor-man’s Patriot; there is no threat Zimbabwe faces that would require these defenses, except possibly South Africa, or a Western intervention in the region.

You need to have your staff look into this. It will be a problem – sooner, not later.

I called Senator Graham’s and Congressman Wilson’s offices earlier this week. They really listened to me for a while, and promised to pass my concerns on.

It’s a blessing to have three outstanding elected officials represent me in the US Capitol; I hope they take this seriously.

Farm Attacks: An Existential Threat to South Africa

I posted this on July 18th of this year, on Facebook, when Facebook was advertising a celebration of Nelson Mandela’s birthday.

SPOILER ALERT – you may find this offensive, and I don’t really care!

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On January 23, 1960, a mob attacked 4 white and 5 black policemen at Cato Manor Police station. The mob murdered the police officers, disemboweling some.

Two months later, on the night of March 29, 1960, small groups of militants approached the police station in Sharpeville, but were driven away by the police on duty there.

The next day, March 30, 1960, thousands of people approached the police station in Sharpeville for a protest that at first was peaceful and even festive. Later, though, the crowd grew to about 20,000, and the mood turned ugly; militant activists were coercing people into attending the protest, cutting telephone lines, and distributing pamphlets warning people not to go to work. Initially, the 20 police had had things well under control facing a peaceful protest, but as the militants more than doubled the size of the crowd and stirred them up to become hostile, the police called for reinforcements, and 130 additional officers arrived, backed by four armored vehicles. Military aircraft overflew the crowd at low altitude in an attempt to scatter it.

The crowd then started throwing rocks and began to approach the police in a threatening manner. Remembering how the police at Cato Manor had been killed and mutilated, some of the officers opened fire on the crowd, and this began a volley of fire that left dozens of protesters dead and about 180 injured.

Influenced by friends like Moses Kotane, who was trained by Stalin’s regime in Moscow and became the general secretary of the South African Communist Party from 1939 until his death in 1978, and having himself begun to really study the works of Marx, Lenin and Mao, Nelson Mandela then cofounded a group called the “Spear of the Nation” as the armed wing of the African National Congress. This organization announced its presence on December 16, 1961, with bombings, beginning a bombing campaign that lasted until the late 1980’s. Together with torture and executions in ANC detention camps, ANC bombings of civilian targets became routine; an ANC campaign to place landmines in rural areas from 1985 to 1987 was only abandoned because of a high rate of casualties among civilian black laborers.

So, on this day that would have been Nelson Mandela’s 100th birthday, let’s remember the impact he had, and let’s consider what kind of a world we would live in if everyone followed his example.

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These links were in the comments on the original Facebook post:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cato_Manor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpeville_massacre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moses_Kotane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela

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Freedom of Speech does not mean the freedom to say it’s a nice day out and to tell the tyrant what a great man he is.

Freedom of Speech means saying unpopular things – things that may be offensive to others.

This is for religious, political and scientific topics. It means questioning whether the Sun revolved around the Earth, which was at one time believed, and it means questioning whether the Earth revolves around the Sun, which is now believed. It means asking stupid questions, saying stupid things; it means questioning common “wisdom” and beliefs that have become dogma.

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I, of course, did not know His Excellency Nelson Mandela personally. But my reading on him, based on the information I have seen, is that he was a communist and a terrorist who wound up governing the country whose government he sought to overthrow. When I refer to Nelson Mandela as “His Excellency”, that is out of sincere respect for the position he held, as President of the Republic of South Africa. And, I acknowledge two possibilities: 1) he did not approve of the indiscriminate killing and torture that the ANC was responsible for, or 2) he rose above it, and tried to make things right. Please feel free to educate me about him in the comments.

Other information I have reviewed shows that the ANC, while in exile, turned to criminal activities. The association of “liberation movements” and terrorist organizations with criminal groups is a topic for another post; suffice it to say, for now, that it is common.

Let’s take a moment and discuss Farm Attacks.

Farm Attacks are not ordinary crime. This term does not refer to a routine robbery of a rural commercial farm, although that does happen. It also does not refer to “social fabric”-type crimes, such as a violent dispute between an employer and an employee or between a married couple in a rural setting, although that, of course, happens too. We are referring to a type of attack where robbery is incidental, where violence is gratuitous, where the clear intent is to terrorize and intimidate the predominantly white commercial farmers, and where the attackers tend to be well-organized, well-trained, well-equipped, and well-supported – support including cover provided by political and law enforcement officials who have been corrupted.

Frankly, it looks like a government-backed militia, or rogue government personnel, or organized crime – but high-end organized crime, not a street gang.

With that in mind, let’s review some of the history.

At one point, the ANC and its military wing, the uMkhonto we Sizwe (abbreviated as MK), accepted Farm Attacks as a legitimate means of waging war against the Apartheid government in South Africa. The legitimacy of such a decision could of course be debated. Regardless, after taking power, Farm Attacks continued. President Mandela prioritized the Farm Attacks, and sought to stop them. (By comparison, today in South Africa, priority crimes include organized, military-style robberies of cash in transit – attacks which have a particularly debilitating effect on the South African economy.)

However, later on, after Mandela’s presidency, the rural police organization known as the Commando System was abolished, despite a recommendation that this not be done until something else was ready to take its place. And, the separate crime category of Farm Attacks was eliminated, rolling these crimes into the aggregated crime statistics. The attacks themselves were, of course, deprioritized – that’s implicit in eliminating them as a separate category.

Then, not surprisingly, the Farm Attacks begin to get worse. In fact, the Wikipedia article linked above refers to the attacks from 2012 onward, after all this occurred, although it does provide statistical data going back to the beginning of the post-Apartheid era.

The fact that Farm Attacks were part of the ANC/MK strategy to destabilize the Apartheid government, coupled with the ANC’s links to organized crime from the Apartheid era when it was operating in exile, then coupled with the disbandment of the Commando System and the elimination of “Farm Attack” as a separate category of crime, and the sophisticated nature of the Farm Attacks, taken together, gives the appearance of a pattern of conduct with implicit consent of government officials, including those at high levels: somebody is opening the door to these attacks, and providing cover for the attackers; the attackers brag about this during some of the attacks.

So, back to my thoughts on Mandela.

1) Maybe he was a good guy, like so many people think. Or maybe he became a good guy. In either case, he is deceased and no longer in charge; his successors might not be so nice.

2) Maybe he was a terrorist, and the ANC is just continuing in its corrupt, terroristic ways.

Either way, we have established the pattern, including the links to past conduct.

The ANC-led government gives conflicting statements on this topic. Individual leaders have done so; His Excellency President Cyril Ramaphosa has personally given conflicting statements on the topic of Farm Attacks, calling for an end to them last year, but then this year denying that it is a specific problem.

They know what is going on, and they understand the organized nature of these attacks. They know it is some kind of guerrilla force or organized crime group.

How could any government tolerate this on its soil? If it is foreign, it has the backing of a state or of a powerful transnational crime cartel, and is thus a clear and present danger to the Republic of South Africa: an act of war. If domestic, it is a sign of corruption at the highest levels – state capture by organized crime – or else it is a symptom of a government tolerating a continuing pogrom against its own people. And, it’s not just against any people: it is against those who employ many (in a nation where unemployment is already at 25%) and who feed most – an attack against the very fabric of South African society, in addition to being an attack on the concept of a “Rainbow Nation” that has found “Unity in Diversity”.

These Farm Attacks are an existential threat to the Republic of South Africa.

Cui bono?

The Republic of South Africa is home to Africa’s second largest and most developed economy, a state that is located on top of major supplies of mineral wealth that are critical to world industry, a state that has commercial ties to the entire world and which is the door to half of Africa… how will it impact the rest of the world when this state collapses in famine, chaos, crime, looting, xenophobic and racially-motivated ethnic cleansing and mass killing?

Because that’s the path it’s on.

New Comments Policy

Basically, I believe in having a free speech zone.

A big part of the problem we face in America today is that, although we have a First Amendment, we are afraid of exercising our right to free speech because we don’t want to offend someone, or we are afraid someone is going to call us “racist” – and we know that being called “racist” is the worst imaginable fate!

So, I have had an open comments policy.

But, I have been getting SPAM comments – literally hundreds of them. Some idiot posts a very general comment that almost sounds legit, with a fake email address, and a link to some website that purportedly sells something.

Enough – I am tired of having to review and delete this stupid stuff.

Also, having it on a post, if even temporarily, detracts from intelligent comments that people are making – and the real comments I have had so far are definitely in this category!

So, if you wish to comment, feel free. But, to do so, you will need to establish a free WORDPRESS account and log in.

After that, go ahead and comment. Don’t expect me to respond to everything. If your comment seems to threaten illegal activity – for example, you threaten an elected official – I may pass the information on to appropriate law enforcement, depending on how serious I think you might be.

Otherwise, while I appreciate comments and will read them as soon as I can, if you are here to say something stupid, I really don’t give a rodent’s posterior.

So far, except for the SPAM, I have had very intelligent, very useful comments, and I really appreciate those.

Please keep in mind that different people have different perspectives on things. Not everyone speaks English fluently and, even if someone does, they might have a different dialect, or come from a different cultural background, so communication can be difficult at times. Please have patience with others, and try to understand what people are saying. Also keep in mind that we may learn more by reading comments that we disagree with, or that even seem dumb at first, so keep and open mind and try to understand what people are saying.

Cheers!