Общий Взгляд на Ситуацию в ЮАР

Положение в южноафриканской республике сложное и ухудшается.

Во-первых Южная Африка является транзитным пунктом для героина, производимого в Афганистане. Героин идет на юг от Афганистана до побережья Индийского океана, а затем по морю перемещается в Африку. Из-за усиления патрулирования дальше по побережью героин теперь уходит дальше на юг, а затем выходит на берег в Африке. Часто героин в настоящее время поступает на берег в Мозамбике. Оттуда он идет по суше, часто в Зимбабве, а затем в Южную Африку.

В Южной Африке его часто упаковывают в контейнерные грузы и загружают на коммерческие суда. Благодаря отличным торговым связям Южной Африки с остальным миром, афганский героин может быть отправлен оттуда в Европу, Северную Америку или Восточную Азию и Тихоокеанский регион. А поскольку Южная Африка не является страной-производителем героина, грузы оттуда часто не проверяют на наркотики.

Превосходная транспортная инфраструктура Южной Африки и относительно неохраняемые границы способствуют контрабанде. Кроме того, отличная финансовая инфраструктура Южной Африки и коррумпированное правительство облегчают отмывание денег.

Увеличенное присутствие героина в Южной Африке из-за контрабанды означает, что он там более доступен по более низкой цене. Следовательно, использование смеси наркотиков на основе героина стало широко распространенным, особенно с учетом высокого уровня безработицы, который достигает до 50 процентов молодежи.

Южная Африка уже была столицей убийств и изнасилований. Но теперь местные банды пытаются контролировать продажу героина, а международные организации, занимающиеся незаконным оборотом наркотиков, борются за контроль над движением наркотиков. Это сделало многие юрисдикции в Южной Африке более опасными, чем зоны военных действий.

Как будто этого было недостаточно, Южная Африка также является ключевым местом для контрабанды оружия и экзотических животных. Помимо всего этого, Южная Африка в настоящее время играет растущую роль в торговле людьми и кокаине.

Во-вторых столкнувшись со всеми преступлениями, южноафриканская полицейская служба находится в обороне. У полиции Южной Африки уровень насильственной смертности в несколько раз выше, чем у их американских коллег. Более того, уровень их самоубийств в 70 раз выше, чем в среднем по Южной Африке.

Полиции Южной Африки пришлось использовать частную охрану для защиты полицейских участков. Это было объяснено как освобождение сотрудников полиции для патрулирования, но это удивляет. В некоторых изолированных полицейских участках нет персонала во время темноты – не из-за проблем с бюджетом или рабочей силой, но потому что полиция не может защитить себя там. Если даже полиция в основном играет в защиту, что люди делают?

Во-третьих правительство во главе с Африканским Национальным Конгрессом некомпетентно и коррумпировано. АНК обратился к коммунизму в конце 1950-х годов и обратился к преступной деятельности, находясь в изгнании в 1980-х годах. Находясь у власти со времени окончания апартеида, АНК продвигает социалистические программы, которые разрушают то, что когда-то было экономикой Первого мира. АНК также разграбляет страну из-за масштабной коррупции, которая называется «захват государства».

Чтобы отвлечь внимание от этого, АНК продолжает обвинять Апартеид, хотя у АНК было 25 лет возможности исправить проблемы той эпохи – проблемы, которые стали хуже. АНК обвиняет белых южноафриканцев и ввел ряд законов, дискриминирующих их. В то время как все южноафриканцы должны работать вместе, чтобы строить экономику, коррумпированный АНК предпочитает воровать у южноафриканского народа и демонизировать белых.

Большинство южноафриканцев хотят мирно ладить друг с другом и строить «Радужную нацию». Но из-за всех преступлений и к тому же расистской пропаганды – пропаганды от АНК и от еще более воинственных и радикальных «Борцов за экономическую свободу» (EFF) – добрые люди Южной Африки потеряли контроль над своими общинами.

В-четвёртых в этом контексте мы рассматриваем геноцидное и ксенофобское насилие, особенно «нападения на фермы».

Южная Африка периодически страдает от ксенофобского насилия. Даже сейчас водители грузовиков вдоль основных автомагистралей подвергаются нападениям со стороны преступников, которые пытаются убить иностранцев, которые, как считается, устраиваются на работу у южноафриканцев. Главная магистраль N3, которая связывает важный порт Дурбан с основным городским районом вокруг Йоханнесбурга, теперь ночью практически непроходима. Другие крупные автомагистрали, такие как N1, связывающая Кейптаун с Йоханнесбургом, и N3, которая проходит вдоль побережья и соединяет порты, также находятся под угрозой.

Хуже этого, как в чрезмерном насилии, так и в последствиях для экономики, являются нападения на фермы. Достаточно сказать, что белые южноафриканские фермеры имеют самую опасную работу в мире, гораздо более опасную, чем работа южноафриканского полицейского или даже солдата, сражающегося в Сирии.

В течение десятилетий хорошо спланированные террористические акты на фермах в Южной Африке привели к тому, что как пожилые, так и очень молодые люди подвергались изнасилованиям и пыткам в течение нескольких часов – даже после того, как они перестали сопротивляться и передали свои ценности нападающим. И часто то, что они имели, стоило менее 50 долларов США. Часто злоумышленники хорошо вооружены, хорошо оснащены (даже имеют станции помех против сотовых телефонов), хорошо обучены и не боятся, что полиция может вмешаться.

Планирования в течение дней, уголовных пыток в течение часов – всё это за 50 долларов? Тот факт, что злоумышленники так мало боятся полиции вместе с их обучением и оборудованием, наводит на мысль о спонсируемых правительством военизированных формированиях или связях с организованной преступностью. Но организованная преступность хотела бы получить прибыль – и 50 долларов не станут покрывать расходы на атаки.

После национальных выборов в мае беззаконие в Южной Африке резко возросло. Теперь, в дополнение к запланированным атакам на фермах, есть много менее сложных атак. Риторика основных политических деятелей и даже посла Южной Африки в Дании и дочери Нельсона Манделы, именующих белых «поселенцами» и «ворами земли», делегитимизирует белых как граждан Южной Африки и выполняет одно из условий ООН для геноцида.

Насилие на расовой и ксенофобной основе угрожает приостановить большую экономическую активность, даже если это приведет к росту цен на продовольствие (из-за затрат, которые фермеры платят за свою защиту) и снижению продовольственной безопасности – в направлении голода.

    Итак, для общей картины:

Южная Африка имеет вторую по величине и наиболее развитую экономику в Африке. Это важный источник большого количества минералов, необходимых для современной промышленности. И он расположен на критических морских путях как ключевой перевалочный пункт, соединяющий Африку с миром и отдаленные части мира друг с другом.

Южная Африка также имеет наибольшее население в южноафриканском регионе. Южная Африка окружает Лесото; Мозамбик и Южная Африка вместе окружают Эсватини (ранее Свазиленд). Обе эти страны сильно зависят от того, что происходит в Южной Африке. Мозамбик сталкивается с политической нестабильностью и исламским мятежом, а также с торговлей наркотиками. Дальше по побережье Танзания, Кения и Сомали есть проблемы с незаконным оборотом наркотиков, исламскими повстанцами и другими проблемами. Вдали от побережья экономика Зимбабве находится в руинах, главным образом потому, что она проводила ту же политику, которую сейчас пытается осуществить АНК Южной Африки. Только Ботсвана (не имеющая выхода к морю и союзник США) и Намибия (на атлантическом побережье) дают надежду в регионе со степенью верховенства закона и стабильным экономическим развитием.

Когда Южная Африка превратится в голод, геноцид и ксенофобское насилие – не если, но когда – Зимбабве и страны вдоль побережья Индийского океана будут падать, как домино. Ботсване и Намибии понадобятся стабилизирующие силы под руководством США, чтобы хаос не затопил эти две страны.

Когда Южная Африка переходит из гангстерского государства в неудавшееся государство торговцев наркотиками, это будет дестабилизировать треть Африки, и последствия будут ощущаться во всем мире.

Summary for Congressional Staff – South Africa

Today I sent this to the staff of one of my elected officials. I have edited out the preliminaries and some sensitive information, but nothing substantial.

__________

To the point: I am VERY concerned about the situation in South Africa and its implications for US national security.

Key issues:

1) South Africa is becoming a growing hub for heroin trafficking. The narcotics are produced in Afghanistan and, due to interdiction efforts elsewhere, more of the product is being moved via the Southern Route, which is actually many different variations on the theme of taking heroin south from Afghanistan to the coast and then sending it across the Indian Ocean. While it goes to different destinations, including the Far East, most of it goes via Africa to Europe. As this is evolving, more and more of it goes farther and farther across the ocean before coming ashore in Africa; South Africa is becoming a key player.

a) South Africa has very good physical infrastructure, which facilitates physical movement.

b) It also has good port facilities and commercial ties with the rest of the world; heroin and other contraband are sent via containerized cargo to distant places, such as the European ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg and so on, and because of South Africa’s extensive commercial ties and the fact that it is not known as a drug-producing country, customs inspections of that containerized cargo are less rigorous than for cargo coming from other places.

c) South Africa has the second-largest and most developed economy in Africa, including excellent financial infrastructure; consequently, it becomes a hub for laundering drug money.

d) The extensive corruption of the ruling ANC, which took a hard left turn politically in the middle of the last century and became heavily affiliated with organized criminal activities in exile during the Apartheid-era insurgency, facilitates all manner of illegal activities. It is so bad that South Africa has become an example of “state capture” – a term that refers to a situation where a government is used for private gain, including for illegal activities.

e) Leakage from transshipped drugs helps fuel the local drug economy; gangs fight to control local distribution, and international drug-trafficking organizations fight to control transshipment hubs. All of this fuels violence and crime, whether it is an addict looking to score a fix, or a war between rival gangs. This is addressed more below.

f) The heroin negatively impacts our allies. In Europe, for example, every Euro spent dealing with drugs is a Euro not spent on defense, giving the current regime in Russia a freer hand in the Black Sea area and in subverting Western democratic institutions, and keeping the West from presenting an effective and unified front against Chinese takeover in the South China Sea via bases in the Spratly Islands. Furthermore, the profits of Afghan heroin help fund jihad against our troops and our allies worldwide.

2) South Africa has a very real, very significant, and rapidly growing problem with crime. It is a murder capital; some jurisdictions are significantly more dangerous than Syria at the moment.

a) Law enforcement is on the defensive. They comprise a significant spike in violent deaths, and a relatively unknown but not unanticipated fact is that their suicide rate is also quite high due to the stress. South African police who try to do their jobs honestly and effectively are demoralized. They are in survival mode; any further stress in South African society could easily have a catastrophic impact on the cops there – they will certainly not be able to promptly turn the tide should the situation devolve.

b) An even higher spike, both in the rate of violent crime and of the violence of the crime, is the victimization of commercial farmers of European descent. During the Apartheid-era insurgency, white farmers were specifically targeted by the ANC’s military wing, the MK. This was a war crime. In the post-Apartheid era, President Mandela did try to address the Farm Attacks. However, post-Mandela, the situation has gotten far worse; reversing a policy that President Mandela had pushed, the government has removed the “Commando System” of rural militia, which performed auxiliary police functions and gave farmers an intrinsic defense capability. Furthermore, the government has deprioritized the Farm Attacks, going so far as to aggregate the Farm Attack statistics in with the rest of the high crime rate for many years, so the plight of commercial farmers would not be noticed. My own analysis of the situation seems to confirm what others suspect: the Farm Attacks appear to have de facto sanction by the South African government, and appear to be perpetrated by a government-sponsored militia, possibly tied to organized criminal activity, but definitely in the spirit of Apartheid-era MK attacks on rural farmers. In a country where “necklacing” was invented, the Farm Attacks stand out for their brutality and gratuitous violence. Officially, the phenomenon is downplayed or altogether denied; however, reports I receive via private means, including from [edited], confirm scholarly research on the phenomenon: it is serious, organized, brutal and well-connected to people in power. The murder rate of white commercial farmers and the violence associated with their deaths is a spike significantly higher even than that of South African police. To be sure, on average, whites are less threatened by crime; but white commercial farmers have what is probably the most dangerous job in the world.

c) Not in the news is the high rate of crime, much of it fueled by drugs, in the township areas inhabited predominantly by blacks. The white commercial farmers at least have some kind of mutual support network and an organized means of trying to combat the Farm Attacks; NOBODY is going to bat for the blacks in these townships, as their communities are plagued by violent crime and sexual assault, and flooded with drugs.

3) Amplifying this mix:

a) ANC mismanagement and corruption has really hurt the economy, taking the country backwards during the quarter century of their rule. One example is the public power utility, ESKOM, which implements “load-shedding” – rolling cuts of electric power. Another example is the destruction of infrastructure – criminal gangs literally rip up the tracks of commuter trains and sell it as scrap, and have gone so far as to assault commuter trains, killing the employees and the guards there to protect the employees and commuters.

b) The identity politics of the ruling ANC, as well as the more extreme identity politics of third-place EFF and the fringe group BLF, fuel ethnic unrest; this creates the atmosphere where Farm Attacks receive tacit approval, even as they are denied and downplayed, and has helped set the stage for the repeated outbreaks of xenophobic violence, the most recent of which we are seeing right now. Quite frankly, my information shows that various factions are arming for civil war.

c) Problems in neighboring countries further impact this. Zimbabwe went down the path of “expropriation without compensation” and took farms from people of European descent; this heavily damaged their agricultural infrastructure, but neighboring South Africa was there to pick up the slack. However, if South Africa goes down this path, it will devastate the entire region with the fallout. Nations in the region are now struggling due to the drop in the price of diamonds. Mozambique has issues with an indigenous Islamic insurgency, as well as with other unrest, and is now dealing with the impact of a recent cyclone. And so on. Southern and Eastern Africa cannot prop up a collapsed South Africa; rather, a collapse in South Africa will most likely have a domino effect.

Boiling this down, the situation in South Africa is much worse than we may believe, even by going out of our way to get news and information about the region. It would not take much to cause significant unrest which, in turn, could quickly spike into ethnic cleansing (as it is, the situation with the Boer farmers is a slow-motion ethnic cleansing with the Farm Attacks) and genocidal violence. This, in turn, could cause a more general collapse, famine, and a refugee crisis which could destabilize neighboring countries all the way up Africa’s Indian Ocean coast; and, it would take a US-led intervention to stabilize our key ally in the region, Botswana, which is much smaller than South Africa and has its capital right across the border. Implicit in this would be a similar stabilization force for Namibia, both to keep the problem from spreading, and to ensure logistic support to US troops in the field in Botswana as well as ensure that Botswana could maintain a degree of trade with the world community via Namibian port facilities (Walvis Bay).

In this light, reports that Zimbabwe is acquiring the Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system from China – essentially a “poor-man’s Patriot” – and of the presence of militant Islamic extremists infiltrating South Africa’s well-established and growing, but peaceful, Islamic community are just icing on a very bad cake.

In my opinion, this is moving in the direction of a Venezuela-style crisis, with the potential for a Rwandan-style genocide, and ultimately a failed narco-state kind of similar to Somalia’s experience – all along critical sea lines of communication and atop key mineral resources needed for world industry.

We still have time to prevent the worst of this. The ruling ANC has shown its sensitivity to criticism in the international arena. While we do not want to tell them how to run their country, 1) heroin trafficking is a legitimate international issue, 2) genocidal and xenophobic violence and ethnic cleansing will not be tolerated, and 3) considering that the American taxpayer is subsidizing South Africa with $510 million in foreign aid for FY 2019 – about $9 per person there, and (depending on the exchange rate and data sources) is easily one fourth of all the money that disappears there due to corruption – the US certainly has a horse in this race.

Please look into this – publicly.

Coming Apart at the Seams

Today I begin emailing this to government officials, media figures and members of civil society worldwide:

South Africa is on the verge of coming apart at the seams, and this is not just hype before their elections next year.

These deeply-rooted seams are related to different approaches to society; the roots are:

a) ethnic/cultural (but portrayed as racial),
b) political,
c) economic,
and
d) lawful/civil vs. criminal/corrupt.

The “Rainbow Nation” has a motto, “Unity in Diversity”, but the reality stemming from this diversity is far different.

A confluence of several factors is causing this:

1) incredible crime, now made much worse by significant heroin trafficking;
2) corruption so bad it is called “state capture”, where government institutions are harnessed to serve private and criminal ends;
3) “Farm Attacks”, which
a) began during the insurgency in the Apartheid era,
b) have driven three quarters of South Africa’s white farmers out of business during the post-Apartheid era,
c) constitute a de facto ethnic cleansing even as they impact food supply and food prices,
and
d) are the cutting edge of a growing ethnic (“racial”) divide;
as well as
4) failed socialist and communist policies, most recently including the drive to “expropriate without compensation” (= “take without paying”, legalized theft) farmland (and anything else).

I will address each of these items in turn, providing links for information; however, I encourage you to take a moment and find your own sources to verify that my comments on these topics accurately reflect the reality and gravity of the situation.

1) Crime and heroin

South Africa has always had a high crime rate. The murder rate is high: on average, the national murder rate compares favorably (just barely!) to many war zones (MUCH more favorably than Syria). However, some precincts are worse; for example, Philippi East, a township of Cape Town, has a murder rate estimated at 323.4 per 100,000, making it nearly six times more dangerous than Afghanistan, and significantly more dangerous than Syria:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-45547975

In addition to being a murder capital, South Africa is a rape capital; it is getting so bad that a deputy minister had to warn everyone to ensure tourists do not get sexually assaulted.

https://www.iol.co.za/pretoria-news/watch-ensure-tourists-are-not-raped-says-deputy-minister-18098013

The crime is now being fueled by heroin.

The world’s heroin production is centered in Afghanistan these days; most of it goes to Europe. Due to interdiction efforts elsewhere, an increasing amount is going via the “Southern Route”, through the Indian Ocean. South Africa is becoming a major transshipment point for many reasons: it has excellent infrastructure, good trade with the rest of the world, and solid financial networks, all of which enable movement of contraband and laundering of drug money.

https://issafrica.org/iss-today/heroin-hits-south-africa-along-the-highway-to-impunity

http://theconversation.com/heroin-trafficking-through-south-africa-why-here-and-why-now-81627

Being a transshipment point results in increased availability of heroin on the street within South Africa.

There (and elsewhere on the continent) heroin is mixed with other drugs, such as cannabis, and these concoctions are known in different jurisdictions by different names: whoonga, nyaope, sugars. Many people who are aware of a drug problem within their community do not realize that they are all dealing with Afghan heroin.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-07-27-the-work-of-whoonga-an-epidemic-on-the-move/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31620569

https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1179509/drug-abuse-is-growing-in-sa/

Addicts get money for drugs through street crime, and this drives the crime rate up higher than it normally is (which is high). Also, while under the influence, they commit crimes they might not otherwise commit, and the level of barbarity increases, as well.

https://crimsonpublishers.com/rpn/pdf/RPN.000554.pdf

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/living-in-krugersdorps-drug-hell-12964346

Finally, gangs fighting over the trafficking and distribution of heroin also fuel the violent crime rate. The presence of foreign criminal gangs then, in turn, helps fuel xenophobic attitudes which themselves have in the past resulted in outbreaks of violence against immigrants from other parts of Africa who arrive in search of jobs.

https://www.iol.co.za/news/cape-gangs-have-global-backing-1790368

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/29/south-africans-are-taking-the-law-into-their-own-hands-vigilantism-extralegal-justice-police-apartheid-anc-private-security/

In the face of all this, South African police can’t even protect themselves. For 2017, they lost 160 police killed in the line of duty (from a total South African population of 57 million people).

https://www.iol.co.za/sunday-tribune/news/160-cops-killed-per-year-police-expert-13474293

By comparison, the US lost 128 officers in the line of duty in 2017 (a drop from the previous year with 143 deaths), from a population of 325 million.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2017-12-28/dramatic-drop-in-police-officer-deaths-in-2017

For police, that’s over seven times as dangerous in South Africa as in the USA for 2017; if we compare South Africa 2017 with the US in 2016 (when we had not experienced a drop), the rate is still over six times as high.

2) Corruption and “state capture”

Corruption in South Africa is rampant.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-10-08-south-africa-a-republic-constituted-on-corruption/

South Africa is now dealing with “state capture”, where illicit and criminal activity actually take over the government apparatus and bend government services to serve criminal interests.

https://www.dw.com/en/inquiry-into-state-capture-scandal-begins-in-south-africa/a-45148092

Considering the growing influence of Afghan heroin moving along the “Southern Route” to Europe, and taking it in the context of corruption and “state capture”, South Africa could be on its way to becoming a “narcostate”.

This is happening in a country where the unemployment rate hovers a little above 25 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/unemployment-rate

That’s one quarter of the population getting by on about $1.25 USD a day.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/south-africa-poverty-levels-increasing-180914111642562.html

About five million people (nearly all blacks) are in squatters’ camps, though if you do an internet search, the information returned is usually about whites in the camps. The fact that there are 385 blacks in such “informal settlements” for each white in such a place helps fuel resentment on the part of many blacks that internet searches make it look like it’s all whites in the camps.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2018/06/14/what-the-numbers-say-about-sas-squatter-camps_a_23459035/

3) In this context, we should discuss the Farm Attack phenomenon.

During the days of Apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC, now the ruling party) was led by Nelson Mandela in the direction of communist ideology. They established a military wing, the MK, of which Mandela was chairman. This militant wing began a campaign of indiscriminate bombings, and went so far as to place landmines in rural areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe

These things were considered war crimes at the time.

http://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.html

The landmines had to end, because so many of the people being killed were black Africans, whom the ANC claimed to be trying to liberate. Mandela sought to steer the military actions in the direction of sabotage, because he felt this had the best chance of success and the best chance of reconciliation afterwards; it was for this sabotage that he was imprisoned.

During this insurgency, the ANC and MK declared commercial farms (owned by people of European descent, so-called “whites”) to be military targets, and commenced a campaign of attacks on them: “Farm Attacks”.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/the-origins-of-south-africas-farm-murder-epidemic

Deliberately targeting civilian farmers was also a war crime, but of course the insurgents were feted as “liberating” South Africa and, in any case, the winner decides who gets tried and for what.

After Apartheid ended and Mandela was elected President, the Farm Attacks continued; some genies just won’t go back into their bottle once they’ve been summoned. President Mandela recognized the serious impact on South Africa’s economy, including on food security, and prioritized these farm attacks.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/farm-murder-blindness

Note that Farm Attacks have been defined as a special category of crime, aside from workplace or domestic violence or other “social fabric” crimes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_farm_attacks

During Mandela’s tenure as President of South Africa, South Africa’s military included a militia component known as the “Commando System”. The Commando System had roots going way back in South Africa’s history, even before the Apartheid era, but it was maintained in the post-Apartheid military organization. Commandos kept military-grade weapons at their rural homes, enabling them to respond quickly to crises, and allowing an intrinsic self-defense capability in the farm areas. The Commandos also served as a police auxiliary, and even in the post-Apartheid era, conducted tens of thousands of missions assisting law enforcement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commando_System_(South_Africa)

Mandela saw the Commando System as a key feature of rural security to address the Farm Attacks, and encouraged people – especially white Boer farmers (see below) – to join.

Looking at the Commando System in the post-Mandela era, it was determined that it should be disbanded, but NOT UNTIL a follow-on could be deployed.

http://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/T%20&%20T/T%20&%20T-11-0-000-13-Web/T%20&%20T-11-1-000-13-ABST-PDF/S-T&T-11-1-025-13-301-Twala-C/S-T&T-11-1-025-13-301-Twala-C-Tt.pdf

Despite this recommendation, the system was dismantled beginning in 2003, over warnings of the main opposition political party, the Democratic Alliance, that doing so would be a disaster.

http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=40081

By 2008, it had been phased out, supposedly to be replaced by specialized police units, which never actually appeared. This left rural farmers particularly vulnerable to Farm Attacks.

Meanwhile, the South African government deprioritized Farm Attacks, going so far as to stop publishing statistics on them. This had the effect of leaving these crimes mixed in with the aggregated crime statistics, so people couldn’t see what was going on. We only know what has been happening because the private sector, including agriculture and civil rights activists, have continued to monitor the phenomenon.

https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/on-sas-brutal-farm-murders

The result was this: government policies left rural farming communities more endangered, at the same time that government policies also made the crimes against them harder to monitor.

Please let that last statement sink in. Taken together with the fact that it was the ANC that began the farm attacks, and that the ANC made these decisions, these facts establish a pattern of conduct on the part of some elements of South Africa’s ruling political party, the ANC: leave the Boer farmers vulnerable, allow them to be brutally and terroristically attacked, and cover the whole thing up.

Scholarly research into the Farm Attack phenomenon shows that its motivation seems to be one of intimidation. Research by Cristopher Gumbi (notice spelling of the first name) demonstrated this.

http://ulspace.ul.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10386/1981/gumbi_ma_2017.pdf

Based on my own research, there are some criminal assaults on rural farms that appear to be “normal” crime. However, the Farm Attacks are a distinct phenomenon; the attackers are 1) well-equipped, 2) well-trained, and 3) execute their attacks with a degree of precision characteristic of military units. Furthermore, there is 4) gratuitous violence – barbaric torture (I will spare you the details) – going far beyond anything that would be needed to coerce victims into cooperating, often lasting for hours (and even days!) after valuables have been taken, and sexual assault that goes beyond anything that could be considered opportunistic rape. Finally, 5) what is stolen is of small value, often less than $20 US, which in no way compensates for the money it takes to buy state-of-the-art cell phone and radio jammers used in the attacks, or to pay for a vehicle to wait at an exfiltration point, or which could satisfy the skilled mercenaries who would be needed to conduct these attacks.

In my opinion, it would take the resources of a transnational criminal cartel, or of a national government, to conduct such a coordinated campaign of terroristic intimidation.

The South African government knows this, and has been aware of it for decades. Yet, the problem has not been effectively dealt with; rather, it appears such crime is being enabled.

The rate of violent death of white commercial farmers in South Africa is about twice the rate of violent death for South African police.

It is noteworthy that the third most powerful political party in parliament, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), was established and is led by a man who used to lead the ANC’s Youth League (ANCYL), Julius Malema. Malema and his people received military-style training at South African military bases about eight years ago.

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Military-training-for-ANCYL-leaders-20100513

Malema wears a military-style uniform, calls himself the “commander in chief”, and is known for singing songs about shooting the Boer (who are the white farmers). Malema has pushed for “expropriation without compensation” and the ruling ANC is now in the process of amending the constitution to do just this; however, concerns exist that it is not just land that will be taken, but that the proposed amendment will allow anything – bank deposits, intellectual property – to be “expropriated” (see below).

The history of the Boer farmers is interesting (and this part is based on documents, not all of which are available online). When Europeans first arrived in the 1600’s, they encountered Khoi, who were nomads, and San, who were hunter-gatherers; these people are reminiscent of Australian aborigines. Boer is a Dutch and Afrikaans word meaning “farmer”; it refers to people who emigrated from Europe to these colonies in South Africa, and then to those who left the Cape Colony area when South Africa came under British control during the Napoleonic era, migrating to the northeast of what is now the Republic of South Africa.

This happened as the Zulu were moving down into the area from farther north. The Zulu were conducting a genocidal conquest of the region. Often, the Boer moved into areas that had been depopulated; many native people either fled from the advancing Zulu, or had been killed. Many of the remaining peoples found an ally with the Boer, who helped defend against further Zulu conquest. As a result, the Boer occupied 1) land that was vacant, either because it had never been inhabited, or because its inhabitants had been killed or had left fleeing the Zulu; 2) land that they procured from neighboring peoples, often exchanging cattle for it (and these people were frequently happy to have the Boer as a buffer between themselves and the Zulu); and 3) land taken from the Zulu through conquest during a defensive war.

One incident of note illustrates the situation: Zulu King Dingane asked the Voortrekker leader Piet Retief to retrieve some stolen cattle, and in return the Voortrekkers would receive land. The Voortrekkers complied, and then agreed to a treaty granting them farmland. They were then invited to a celebration, and were asked to leave their weapons behind; at the celebration, the Zulus treacherously slaughtered the unarmed Voortrekkers. The Zulus then went on the offensive, massacring more Boer in a camp nearby. In the subsequent Battle of the Blood River, 15,000 Zulu warriers attacked 470 Voortrekkers, but the Zulus suffered a crushing defeat.

Regardless of the history nearly two centuries ago, all people whose families have lived in what is now the Republic of South Africa for generations are Africans – some of European descent, some of Asian descent, but Africans nonetheless – and are citizens of South Africa; they have intrinsic human rights and deserve equal protection before the law.

That notwithstanding, people of European descent are too often referred to as “settlers” in a very clear effort to delegitimize them as Africans and as citizens of the “Rainbow Nation” and to set the stage for de facto ethnic cleansing of rural farm lands. To be sure, it is not a situation where murderous attacks on whites are particularly rampant; on average, crime impacts blacks, especially poor blacks, at a higher rate, and whites tend to be a little safer. But when you disaggregate the information and look at white commercial farmers in rural areas, there is an incredible spike, not just in murder and rape, but in the barbarity and violence of the crimes, as well. The obvious intent, both of public statements by political leaders which create the atmosphere and of the Farm Attacks themselves, is ethnic cleansing.

Genocide Watch has categorized South Africa at Stage 6 of 10 for genocide of white Boer farmers and of foreigners; elements of and spikes into the other four stages are present.

http://www.genocidewatch.com/south-africa

4) Expropriation without Compensation (EWC)

One move that the ANC-led government is trying, with tremendous support from the radical left-wing militant EFF, is to gain political leverage for the upcoming elections by pushing a scheme to take land from the “settlers” (white farmers). Though Article 25 of the South African Constitution allows for “expropriation” of property subject to fair compensation and in the public interest, South Africa is in the process of amending this article to permit taking of private property without compensation. Despite being billed as an effort to redistribute land, the reality is that no property will be safe: urban and intellectual property, accumulated wealth… all will be subject to “expropriation without compensation”.

It should be noted that the very next article in the South African Constitution, No. 26, provides that people may not be dispossessed of their homes without having their day in court. Also, Article 39 states that the courts must consider international law; much of what is going on in South Africa, and this includes the proposed EWC, would violate many provisions of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/

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South Africa is the world’s 25th largest country by area, 24th by population, and is Africa’s only member of the G20; the economy is Africa’s second largest and most developed; depending on which set of statistics you consider, its GDP ranks anywhere from 31st to 41st place in the world. The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) ties the South African economy to those of its neighbors, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (now known as eSwatini). South Africa has some of the richest mineral deposits in the world, feeding world industry, and has extensive coal deposits. There are also largely undeveloped reserves of unconventional and offshore petroleum (though not a lot), and the country sits astride critical shipping lanes around the southern tip of Africa.

A great deal is at stake, and if South Africa goes the way of a failed state, you need to imagine a Somalia-like scenario, but on steroids – including Islamic terrorism, which is destabilizing large parts of Mozambique (South Africa’s neighbor to the north along the Indian Ocean coast), and which is now present in the port city of Durban. In my opinion (and in the Air Force, I was an Intelligence Applications Officer and graduate of the USAF Weapons School), this could destabilize a third of Africa through genocidal and xenophobic civil war, famine and a resulting refugee crisis.

Such a scenario will beg for a US-led intervention to stabilize the country; that failing, China would likely have to intervene to protect mineral resources and critical infrastructure. China already appears to be getting assets in place, including the alleged deployment of late-model surface-to-air missiles (a “poor man’s Patriot”) to neighboring Zimbabwe, which faces no threat requiring such a defense, unless one considers the potential for a Western intervention.

Impressions of South Africa

I had first heard via talk radio that things weren’t going so well in South Africa. This was about four years ago.

This past summer, I heard a little more about the Farm Attacks, and became very concerned. As I started looking into it myself, I noticed that when you pull on one thread, sometimes it is an entire garment that unravels; this was very apparent with South Africa.

In this post, I do not provide links. I highly encourage you to do your own research, and to THINK FOR YOURSELF about what you find.

These are my impressions. They are based on information derived from a variety of sources:

1) official reports by
a) the South African government,
b) other national governments,
c) supranational organizations such as the United Nations and the African Union, and
d) non-governmental organizations (some of which meet in conjunction with government officials);
2) news articles from many different sources, in many different countries, and from many different perspectives;
3) podcast and talk radio segments from diverse sources;
4) emails, direct/personal messages on social media, discussions in forums and on social media (both public and in closed groups); and
5) others.

People with whom I have interacted privately include government and law enforcement officials, members of civil society and academia, and citizens, not only from South Africa, but from neighboring countries, as well, and people from around the world who have something to add.

So, here’s what I have come up with.

First and foremost:

1) Americans do not need to lecture or save the people of South Africa, or anyone else, for that matter. Instead, we need to partner with them and learn from each other.

2) The basic premise (quoted in my last post) upon which America is founded is very sound indeed:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

This should be a model for all people everywhere; when I say we should learn from each other, I think this is something America has to offer.

3) Farm Attacks are a real phenomenon, and are distinct from ordinary crime (which is incredibly high in South Africa).

Farm Attacks started out as a means by which the ANC’s military (terrorist) wing put pressure on the Apartheid government. After the end of Apartheid, the attacks continued. It got to the point where Nelson Mandela, who by this time was the President of post-Apartheid South Africa, prioritized Farm Attacks and rural security. But later, things changed.

A special rural police group, known as the Commando system, had been reasonably effective in addressing rural security. This system had historical origins going back a long way. In part because of this history, it was disbanded. But, the disbandment occurred despite recommendations by experts that the Commando system not be disbanded, at least not until something else was ready to take its place. Furthermore, Farm Attacks were not only deprioritized, but stopped being considered as a separate category of crime; instead, they were mixed in with other crime in aggregated statistics. This had the result that they could not so easily be distinguished from the high crime rate that characterizes South Africa. And, let’s be clear: on average, South Africa ranks just below most of the world’s war zones for a rate of violent deaths (homicides, murders), but some jurisdictions within South Africa, taken by themselves, rank higher – much higher, many times higher!

The disbandment of rural security, the deprioritization of the crimes, the aggregation of the statistics… it all looks like a pattern of conduct, a deliberate policy of the government to push commercial farmers (predominantly those of European descent) off their land, possibly via proxy, while maintaining plausible deniability.

So, murderous Farm Attacks, with gratuitous violence and torture, appear to have the implicit nod of consent of the government.

At this point, I really started digging. I mean, I began digging like a dog in his backyard when he thinks he smells something good: sniff, sniff, sniff, dig, dig, dig… run around with a wagging tail… sniff, sniff, sniff, dig, dig, dig… occasionally stop to wet on something.

Here’s what I came up with, in no particular order – and some of it may seem pretty far afield from the Farm Attacks (but I have stopped believing in coincidences):

Crime: South Africa is a crime capital. It has long had a high crime rate. Its violent death rate ranks it just under Afghanistan (a war zone), but some parts of South Africa, especially certain urban districts, have murder rates (and rape rates) that make Afghanistan look tame by comparison. Corruption is rampant there. South Africa also is a world leader for economic crime (I never would have imagined that). On top of that, the infrastructure is under attack; gangs of thieves brazenly steal critical components from electric power and water utilities, from commuter train rail networks… the stolen items, including ferrous metals and copper, get sold as scrap, and employees on the commuter lines face armed robbery and murder on the job, even though protected by security guards!

Government officials in some localities pointed out that this is an attack on the very fabric of society. Local governments could collapse under the pressure and, if that happens enough, South Africa could become a failed state. The more information I get on crime and related topics, the more I think this is a very real concern; it is not overstated, nor is it sensationalism.

South African Police: Cops in South Africa are getting killed in the line of duty at a very high rate. It’s bad; they can’t even protect themselves. Also, the suicide rate among the South African Police Service (SAPS) is more than 70 times the South African average. Law enforcement there face well-equipped, murderous syndicates and cartels; often, the police are outgunned and outequipped. Also, some of the criminal gangs have gunmen who are remarkably well-trained, while SAPS equipment is sometimes never procured, or is procured but disappears, due to corruption. Bravery alone does not level the playing field; no offense to SAPS, but in many cases, they can only hope to win by outnumbering the bad guys. On top of that, there are serious corruption problems within South African law enforcement. Criminal gangs sometimes have very good intelligence on police operations. Some cops sell out; it’s that, or get murdered brutally without making a difference (and their family is threatened, too). Some cops are exhausted; others are lazy. For the honest, brave cops, risking their lives to do their jobs, they have insult added on top of injury by being lumped in with the bad cops. No wonder there is PTSD and a high suicide rate!

Heroin: South Africa has become a major transshipment point for heroin from Afghanistan on its way to Europe (and elsewhere). Since 2001, poppy production in Afghanistan has gone up. It used to be that the poppies were shipped elsewhere for refining into heroin. Now, though, the refining occurs in Afghanistan, and product quality is very good. Movement used to be via the Balkans to Europe. However, with increased policing along that route, traffickers now also ship it to the coast of Pakistan or Iran, and from there load it onto seagoing vessels, often dhows. These take the drugs to Africa’s east coast. Increasingly, the heroin is moved down to the southern part of Africa, often unloaded at small ports on offshore islands, or onto small boats that take it in to the coast. From there, it goes along the road network – and South Africa has a good road network – and later gets transshipped to Europe. South Africa also has excellent commercial ties to all destinations where they might want to send the heroin; and, there is good financial infrastructure to move the money around. Finally, the rampant corruption allows drug traffickers to operate comfortably.

Also, keep in mind that as heroin gets trafficked through some place, it becomes available in that place for a lower cost, due to availability. For example, there is leakage: a trafficker pays a corrupt official with product instead of money. The result is that addiction goes up. Understand, addicts get money to buy their drugs through street crime. So, robbery, burglary, carjacking, mugging… it all goes up as addicts are desperate to get their fix. And, in South Africa, heroin is mixed with other drugs; different communities each have their own concoction, all known by different names – many in civil society do not realize they are facing the same problem.

Rival gangs fight over trafficking routes and turfs for distribution; the murder and violent crime rate goes up and foreign gangs move in. Even decent, honest criminals have trouble making ends meet; there goes the neighborhood.

Socialism: A socialistic government responds to society problems by taxes in order to provide services. Those who produce get taxed; those who don’t get subsidized. There is a net movement from working and producing to taking government hand-outs. Much of the money disappears into the pockets of dirty politicians; corruption is an additional tax that everyone pays, and it’s a hefty tax in South Africa.

Demagoguery: People seeking political power look for scapegoats to blame. They blame foreigners for the crime; xenophobia kicks in, and many good, honest people, who are actually working and contributing, get victimized. (The drug dealers have guys with guns protecting them, and have paid off the police and important politicians; they are only in danger from rival gangs.) This is where the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) come in; they (together with many in the ruling African National Congress) blame South Africans of European descent, seeking to murder the Boer, Afrikaner and others and take their property.

Proxies: Let’s not forget the ruling ANC had Julius Malema as the head of its youth league, and knew of how he used to sing “Shoot the Boer”. Despite this, they decided to give Malema and the ANCYL military training at South African military installations. (Recall, the Nazis and communists have all enjoyed providing military training to their youth organizations.) Later, Malema takes these guys and forms his own political party; as I said before, I have stopped believing in coincidences.

Economy: Of course, they also threaten to nationalize foreign businesses. All of this creates political chaos which, in turn, is very bad for the investment that South Africa needs to get its economy going. And, anyone doing business in South Africa has to consider the added costs of security. After all, though businesses pay taxes, the police can’t protect them. Indeed, the tax money that does not get stolen may wind up getting spent on equipping the people who are going to take their business away from them if the next couple of elections go the wrong way. The hashtag #InvestSA – not even! Another hashtag #MeetSouthAfrica – tourists are getting targeted now, too, by criminals.

Meanwhile, poor people are trying to make ends meet. One relic left over from Apartheid is that often, blacks live in places that are quite a distance from the places where they work. So, they have to commute. They do this from a dangerous neighborhood, to a dangerous place, and going through dangerous places on their way. Remember, too, the issues with the commuter trains – sometimes, people lose their jobs because they can’t get to work because someone stole a key part of their means of transportation. And, while they are away, their families are in this neighborhood full of drugs and street crime.

On top of that, the Farm Attacks have driven many South African farmers out of business; others are paying a great deal for better security. All this results in rising food costs (on top of rising fuel costs, etc.) which the poor in South Africa can least afford.

The commercial farmers do have a network trying to call attention to their situation; who is helping these poor black people dealing with the crime in their communities, the dangers and uncertainties of their commute to work, and so on? Google “South Africa squatters camps” and odds are you will see pictures of the many white people who are now one very small step away from being homeless (maybe they’re already there); but, remember, blacks are suffering terribly, too, and there are camps full of them, as well – more than 5 million of them, that is 385 blacks for every white, living in “informal dwellings”.

Mineral resources: Though down from its peak, South Africa still produces diamonds, and is the world’s fifth largest producer of gold; also, it is the world’s third largest exporter of coal, and is the world’s largest producer of chrome, manganese, platinum, vanadium and vermiculite. China is South Africa’s major trading partner, and is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore; South Africa is China’s third biggest supplier. There are some offshore oil reserves, and potential for non-conventional production of oil and gas ashore. There’s a whole laundry list of important minerals in South Africa’s geologically rich land.

Genocide: Some blacks seem to think whites are cry-babies for talking about “white genocide”, and, given what blacks are going through in South Africa, it is very understandable. But, it is a fact experts have shown that six of ten stages of genocide against whites (and against some groups of blacks) have been largely fulfilled, with elements of and spikes into the other four. Some say white genocide is already happening, while I say it is not, but this is a question of naming it: basically, they say the glass is half full (more than 60% full, actually), while I point out that the glass is (somewhat less than) half empty. In situations like this, one must err on the side of caution; it is WRONG to wait until the genocide occurs to REACT – instead, the world must be PROACTIVE to PREVENT it.

In this context, let me explain: most blacks want nothing to do with genocidal attacks on whites. But, remember, all these good people are struggling just to survive – in a country with an outrageous crime rate, and where the police, as it is right now, cannot effectively protect themselves. Should there be a genocidal outbreak, do we really believe all the good people together with the cops will suddenly be effective to stop it? Or, is it more likely they will be even more in defense mode, just trying to protect themselves and their families and communities?

If one argues that there is a slow-motion genocide and ethnic cleansing – not of all of South Africa, but of the rural and commercial farming areas – then the evidence supports that. Indeed, as high as the murder rate there is, the rate of killings of police in the line of duty is quite a bit higher, and the rate of killings of white farmers is higher yet – it is a very clear spike, if you can disaggregate the statistics.

(Never mind the terrible torture inflicted on the farmers.)

South Africa has Africa’s second largest and most developed economy, an incredibly important player on the world scene. What happens as all these problems worsen, and drive the nation further into chaos? Such a large supplier of so many important minerals, sitting astride such important shipping lanes… you think Somalia caused problems when it became a failed state, just you wait until the Republic of South Africa collapses.

Oh, speaking of Somalia… wait a minute! Did I mention Islamic terrorists? I didn’t??

Militant Islamic extremists are sowing terror in Mozambique, immediately to South Africa’s north along the Indian Ocean coast… you know, right there, where the little boats bring the heroin in?

Did I mention terrorist links to heroin? Terrorist groups fund their activities through organized crime (and other means), and heroin trafficking is particularly liked: it destroys the infidel world from within, while providing money for holy war. Where there is Afghan heroin being trafficked, there are profits that can be traced back to Islamic terrorist groups. And the amount of heroin flowing along the Southern Route, through South Africa, is truly amazing, though we don’t see most of it.

By the way, just south along the coast from Mozambique is… the South African port city of Durban, where, earlier today (October 24, 2018), a terrorist bomb plot was publicly linked – in court – to the Islamic State.

Potential famine, genocide that could flare up, possible state collapse… with Islamic terrorists ready to make South Africa the next Islamic State.

And, if America does get dragged into it, bear in mind: Communist China recently sold its HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system to Zimbabwe, a landlocked country bordering both South Africa and Mozambique (and through which some of that heroin moves). China has sold a great deal of other weapons to Zimbabwe, too, and now is reported to be establishing a military base there.

What is the HQ-9? It’s kind of like a poor-man’s Patriot. And, there is no one in that part of Africa that Zimbabwe would need the HQ-9 to defend against, except possibly South Africa… or a Western intervention in the region.

But, don’t believe me… do your own research.

South Africa Farm Attacks – Link to Heroin Trafficking?

The first part of this is background information, and is presented “as is”. I am not providing links to any references or sources; feel free to look it up on your own. If you have something to add, or if you really can’t find something, please leave a comment. : )

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Opiates – heroin – come from Afghanistan these days. In recent decades, very nearly all the world’s production of heroin is centered in Afghanistan.

In the past, poppies were cultivated in this region, but refining into heroin had occurred elsewhere. In recent decades, though, the refining has been done increasingly on-site in Afghanistan.

Today, high-quality refined heroin leaves Afghanistan via three main routes for Europe. The least used of these is called the “Southern Route” and begins by running from producing areas to the coast of Pakistan or Iran. From there, heroin is loaded aboard various kinds of ships, but especially aboard dhows, to cross the Indian Ocean.

Much of that heroin goes to Africa, and most of that ultimately is for transshipment to Europe.

The product has generally gone ashore into East Africa. The dhows dock at small islands, or unload their product onto smaller boats at sea, in order to avoid detection in larger ports.

Often, though, the dhows go farther south…

South Africa has many benefits for traffickers: there is good infrastructure, both physical (roads, etc) and financial; and, as the most developed and second largest economy in Africa, there are plenty of connections to the larger global economy. Another important benefit is the increasing corruption of the ruling ANC, which creates an environment conducive to large-scale illegal activities.

Sometimes the product is brought in, perhaps hidden in shipping containers, to ports such as Durban and Cape Town. More frequently, though, the heroin is unloaded into Mozambique, and broken down into smaller shipments to be sent on. From Mozambique, it may go by road to Zimbabwe, perhaps even continuing on to Botswana. From Botswana, it generally crosses the border into South Africa, then is moved along South Africa’s road network. For example, one route takes it down the N18, then the N14, then the N10, and across the border into Namibia, from where it eventually finds its way northward to the markets in Europe.

Along routes where narcotics are moved, the drugs become less expensive due to their increased availability. Increased availability and decreased cost together result in increased use. To get money for their drugs, drug users resort to street crime, so there will also be a rise in thefts, robberies, car jackings, home invasions and so on. So, wherever drugs are trafficked, there is a rise in drug use and in crime incidental to the drug use.

Also, drug-trafficking organizations employ armed… uh, “security”. : ) Loyalty is important, but so is expertise and ability.

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With these thoughts in mind, let’s consider some excerpts from An Investigation of the Motivational Factors for Farm Attacks and Its Consequential Injurious Phenomena, an MA dissertation by Gumbi Mduduzi Godling Cristopher at the University of Limpopo:

One hundred (100%) per cent of the respondents stated that attacks which occurred on their farm were well-planned.

All of the surviving victims mentioned that the attacks are linked with a crime syndicate, with the chief aim of robbing farmers off their money, valuables and weapons in order to fund their organization.

The fact that perpetrators come from Gauteng, gets picked up after an attack, communicates about the possible cash to be taken (intelligence gathering) as well as the laying out of signs strongly indicate a collaboration that can be described as organised crime.

Seventy-eight (78%) percent of the respondents who reported attacks on their farm are a form of intimidation, aimed to drive farmers off their land. Respondent four stated that farm attacks are not motivated by land claims; but by intimidation to make farmers leave their land even if there are no claims on the farm.

Respondents mentioned that attacks are attributed to an organised crime syndicate which attacks farmers for their weapons and money or simply to kill them. The precision of attacks such as knowing the best time to attack, cleaning the crime scene (picking up cartridges) and weapons handling skills indicate some form of training, prior planning from the attackers such as surveying the property and the farmers’ routine activities are all characteristics of military reconnaissance.

One hundred percent (100%) of the respondents reported that their daily movements or routine activities contributed to the attacks. All the respondents stated that attackers do a survey of the farm to determine the probabilities of executing the attack successfully.

The researcher cannot reach a conclusion that renting or owning a farm is a motivational factor of the perpetrators to attack. What is clear is that attacks are often violent and in some instances victims have been shot at or killed on sight.

The researcher considers that disputes with labourers are not an ultimate contributing factor that determines the impetus to attack the farmer.

From the stolen items listed above the researcher concludes that attackers target farms because of their arsenal of weapons and for money and other valuables such as jewellery and cellular phones.

South Africa’s farm attacks constitute an organized, military-style campaign; this is a terroristic psyop. Its long-term goal is to terrorize the farmers off the land, whether the land belongs to the farmers or not.

The description of the attacks matches what we would expect if a drug trafficking organization (DTO) were behind it.

But why would a DTO do this? Wouldn’t it make more sense to try to slip the drugs through without calling attention to the operation?

The description also matches what we would expect if a government-sponsored paramilitary group were behind it.

It is clear that this kind of thing does not happen over an extended period of time on the territory of a reasonably stable and functioning country without the national government being aware of it through national and police intelligence sources.

A DTO operating with the de facto consent of corrupt politicians in key positions of power in government would exactly match the description of the farm attackers from the report excerpts above.

This is especially true if you factor in similar attacks on black victims who are too poor, and in many cases too illiterate, to draw attention to their plight.

Is a DTO establishing control over places within South Africa for retail distribution of heroin, together with control over more rural areas for use as safe houses and to warehouse their product? They presumably have the government paid off; but armed, rural farmers, with a mutual support network and over whom the government may have less influence, could cause a problem for trafficking of controlled substances either through the country or to retail markets within the country.

By the way… what happens when “state capture” is done by organized crime?

No matter how you slice it, it seems key people in the government of South Africa may now be involved in the heroin business.