So, anyone following the news has a great deal to take in.
And, this includes mainstream media news about South Africa.
But, there is a great deal that is not being addressed.
Of course, there are the farm attacks. But, we know that’s not going to make it into the news. The government denies the problem, and there is a great deal of evidence to suggest that certain elements of the government are complicit and facilitating the farm attacks.
But that’s not what we’re talking about.
Check the news, and you can see information about the State Capture Inquiry, and you can find information about the cyclone that hit southeast Africa.
But, what else is not in the news, and how does it all tie together?
Much of southern and eastern Africa is facing a shortage of rainfall, or even drought conditions (except where the cyclone recently hit).
The main thing to understand as you look at the images below: red and orange colors are bad – they mean a shortage of water:
Why is this significant?
South Africa has Africa’s second largest and most developed economy. It also has a large population, of 53 million people, making it the fifth most populous country on the continent, and the most populous in southern Africa.
As it is, the other countries in southern and eastern Africa are having a variety of problems. The scarce rainfall I am calling attention to above, the recent cyclone that has been in the news, and other situations are causing problems.
But, the region is getting by – not without difficulty, not without violence, not without loss of life, but getting by.
What will happen if the more extreme elements in South Africa’s political scene get their way, and dispossess South Africans of European descent of their property? The economy (which is currently facing difficulties, for example, due to corrupt mismanagement of the electricity provider, Eskom) will tank, food security will be impacted, and this dispossession can only occur violently. Racist violence targeting whites will spark general xenophobic violence; the unrest could easily spread into a broader civil war, and will most certainly create a refugee crisis.
Refugees will leave South Africa, inundating nearby countries, which are smaller and have less economic activity: Namibia, concerned about drought; Mozambique, dealing with Islamic insurgents and the aftermath of a terrible cyclone; and so on.
Refugees moving in a northeastern direction, along the Indian Ocean coast, will cause the greatest instability, as they move into countries that already have problems with unrest, weather, and so on, and do not have the reasonably successful and stable situations seen in Namibia and Botswana.
This could cause a domino effect up the coast.
Even in the absence of such a severe situation, considering the impact of drought conditions on food security in southern and eastern Africa, what will happen when the ruling ANC takes farmland from white minority farmers and “redistributes” it to people who do not want farms and who do not know how to farm (they want jobs and places to live close to those jobs – in the townships and cities)?
South Africa needs to maximize food production in order to avert a crisis in other African nations. But if South Africa decimates its agricultural sector in the hope of diverting attention from corruption, loadshedding, and other problems and for electoral gain for the ruling party in the upcoming elections, the ruling ANC will simply be adding a large, new crisis on top of the other crises ongoing and developing in South Africa and elsewhere nearby.
How is this going to impact Europe and America?
Well, we will need to mount a humanitarian operation – probably a pretty big one – and an operation to stabilize key allies, such as Botswana. Botswana is trying hard to do things right; but it’s a smaller country right on South Africa’s border, and will inevitably be impacted as food prices zoom up, and with refugees fleeing the problems in South Africa. With just a little over 2 million people, Botswana could easily be overwhelmed with refugees.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to dispense over half a billion dollars in foreign aid to South Africa. That’s almost ten dollars per person there!
Every dollar of US taxpayer money spent in South Africa helps the ruling ANC avoid accountability for all the corruption and all the money corrupt government officials there steal. Currently, it is estimated that corruption in South Africa accounts for a loss of 27 billion rand per year. That’s about 1.9 billion US dollars, over three and a half times what we are spending in foreign aid for South Africa. If South Africa could cut its corruption in half, they could do better than they are now, even without any US taxpayer dollars to subsidize them. That would mean more US foreign aid money would be available to help victims of drought, storms, and so on. (Or we could spend that money here at home on our own infrastructure, but of course, that’s a ridiculous idea.)
The real issues in South Africa are not in the news here in the USA right now.
But, they will be.